I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Reform UK are now favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election at 10/11.
- Robert Jenrick’s defection from the Conservatives has triggered major movement in political betting markets.
- 2028 is now the most likely election year, narrowly ahead of 2029 or later.
Reform UK Edge Ahead After Jenrick Defection
Political betting markets have been thrown into flux this week following Robert Jenrick’s shock defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.
The high-profile switch has immediately shifted sentiment among punters, with Reform UK now installed as favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election.
Jenrick, who was sacked by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch earlier this month, made his first constituency appearance as a Reform UK MP in Newark, Nottinghamshire, on Monday.
The event was far from smooth, with one audience member heckling the former Cabinet minister before being removed from the venue, underlining just how divisive the move has already become.
You can get the latest odds on politics through Ladbrokes, who give various markets around the next General Election.
18+. New UK & ROI customers only . Certain deposit methods & bet types excl . Min first £10 win or E/W bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 & get 4 x £10 free bets . Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cashout, restrictions + T&C apply.
#ad. 18+, gambleaware.org, T&Cs Apply
Next General Election – Most Seats Odds
| Next General Election Most Seats | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Conservatives | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Green Party | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Advance UK | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| Your Party | 200/1 | 0.5% |
Reform UK Momentum Reflected in the Betting
The move to make Reform UK favourites at 10/11 is a significant statement from bookmakers.
Jenrick’s arrival. combined with sustained polling momentum, has dramatically boosted expectations for the party.
Reform’s leadership has been keen to frame the defection as evidence that the party is now a credible governing alternative, rather than a protest movement.
From a betting perspective, that narrative appears to be resonating.
What the expert says...
Trouble for the Conservatives?
The Conservatives drifting to 7/2 reflects growing concern about internal stability.
Losing a senior MP in such public fashion and to a direct rival on the right has compounded fears of further defections.
Meanwhile, Labour remain second favourites at 5/2, suggesting bettors still expect them to perform strongly, but perhaps not dominate the electoral map as decisively as once predicted.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens remain long shots in the Most Seats market, while fringe parties continue to attract only speculative interest.
When Will the Next General Election Be Held?
Alongside the “Most Seats” market, bookmakers have also been active on when the next General Election will actually take place and here too, opinion is beginning to settle.
| Year of Next General Election | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| 2027 | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| 2028 | 15/8 | 34.8% |
| 2029 or later | 10/11 | 52.4% |
The market currently favours 2029 or later (10/11), but 2028 at 15/8 is a strong second choice, suggesting bettors expect a near-full parliamentary term, but with enough instability to bring the date slightly forward.
Jenrick’s Newark Reception Adds to the Narrative
Jenrick’s first Reform UK speech as a sitting MP was always going to attract scrutiny, but the heated exchange in Newark has only amplified media attention.
While the heckling incident was brief, it reinforced the sense that his defection could act as a flashpoint moment in British politics, something that betting markets are increasingly pricing in.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on UK Political Markets
Political betting markets, including General Election odds, are available across many major UK betting sites, with prices reacting quickly to leadership changes and party defections.
If you’re interested in these markets, it’s worth comparing prices via trusted betting sites and keeping an eye out for free bets and enhanced odds offers.
You can also explore the best political betting sites for novelty and political specials as campaigns develop.
18+. New UK & ROI customers only . Certain deposit methods & bet types excl . Min first £10 win or E/W bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 & get 4 x £10 free bets . Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cashout, restrictions + T&C apply.
#ad. 18+, gambleaware.org, T&Cs Apply
