I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Gavin Williamson is the 3/1 favourite to be the next sitting Conservative MP to defect to Reform UK, ahead of Esther McVey at 4/1, according to Ladbrokes
- A Labour MP joining Reform UK during the current Parliament is odds-on at 8/13, making it the most eyebrow-raising market of the lot
- The defection markets have come into sharp focus ahead of Thursday's Local Elections, with Reform UK expected to make significant gains across England
The Floor Is Getting Crowded And Bookmakers Are Taking Notice
Bookmakers are rarely short of compelling markets, but the latest defection specials from Ladbrokes may be among the most fascinating of this Parliament.
With betting sites now pricing up which Conservative MP could be the next to cross the floor to Reform UK, the latest markets are painting a vivid picture of just how unstable the British political landscape has become, and the timing, on the eve of Local Elections across England, could not be more charged.
Reform UK's momentum has been relentless. Nigel Farage's party has attracted around 21 former Conservative MPs, with high-profile defections including Robert Jenrick, Andrew Rosindell and Suella Braverman all joining in January 2026 alone.
The Conservatives, haemorrhaging talent and credibility, now face the uncomfortable reality that the bookmakers, and punters, believe there is plenty more to come.
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Williamson Leads the Tory Defection Market
Gavin Williamson heads the betting at 3/1 to be the next sitting Conservative MP to defect to Reform UK.
The former Chief Whip and Cabinet minister has had a turbulent relationship with the Conservative Party in recent years, and his position at the top of this market will raise few eyebrows among Westminster watchers.
Esther McVey follows at 4/1, a politician who has made no secret of her ideological alignment with many of Reform's core positions.
Further down the card, Nick Timothy and Priti Patel are both available at 6/1.
Timothy, a close ally of former Prime Minister Theresa May, represents a more surprising name at these odds, while Patel's presence reflects lingering questions about her long-term future within Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party.
Full Defection Market Odds
| Next Conservative MP to Join Reform UK | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williamson | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Esther McVey | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Nick Timothy | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Priti Patel | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Christopher Chope | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| John Hayes | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Katie Lam | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Matt Vickers | 12/1 | 7.7% |
The Labour Question: The Market's Most Explosive Bet
If the Tory defection market is compelling, the Labour question is explosive.
Ladbrokes have priced up whether a serving Labour MP will join Reform UK during the current Parliament, and the result is striking, with Yes odds-on at 8/13, implying a 61.9% probability that it happens. No is available at 6/5.
That Ladbrokes are prepared to price a Labour defection to Reform at those levels speaks to the volatility of the current political climate and, perhaps, to whispers circulating in Westminster that Farage's reach extends further than the Conservative benches.
Whether driven by discontent with Keir Starmer's leadership, personal ideological drift, or electoral calculation, the idea of a Labour MP crossing to Reform would represent one of the most seismic political moments of this Parliament.
| Will a Serving Labour MP Join Reform This Parliament? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8/13 | 61.9% |
| No | 6/5 | 45.5% |
Where To Bet on the MP Defection Markets
If you want to get involved in the MP defection specials, Ladbrokes are offering the full range of markets and are one of the most trusted bookmakers for political betting in the UK.
For a full comparison of where to place your political bets, visit our guide to the best political betting sites to find the right platform for you.
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min first £5/€5 bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
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