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- Labour are 1/4 favourites to win Makerfield as Andy Burnham eyes a return to Westminster
- Reform UK are 7/2 to cause an upset, with Restore Britain 20/1 in third
- Labour Vote Share market is split: Under 45.5% is 4/5, Over 45.5% is 10/11
Burnham Strong Favourite With Betting Sites As Right Splits In Makerfield
Betting sites have made Labour a commanding 1/4 favourite to win Thursday's Makerfield by-election, with Andy Burnham positioned to return to Westminster on the back of what looks increasingly like a fractured right-wing vote.
The top political betting sites have firmed up Labour's price sharply, reflecting new constituency polling that has the Greater Manchester Mayor on 46%, five points clear of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon on 41%.
Reform are second in the book at 7/2, a price that implies a real but distant chance of an upset. The market's read aligns with the polling: Reform are competitive, but Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, currently polling around 7% in the constituency with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, appears to be peeling off exactly the kind of voters Nigel Farage's party needs to mount a winning challenge.
That dynamic, more than anything else, explains why Labour are as short as 1/4. It's not that Burnham is running a flawless campaign; it's that the right-of-Labour vote is splitting votes big time.
Makerfield By-Election Odds At A Glance
| Makerfield By-Election | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/4 | 80.0% |
| Reform UK | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Restore Britain | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Green Party | 500/1 | 0.2% |
| Conservatives | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats at 1000/1 each tell their own grim story for the two parties that dominated British politics for the best part of a century.
In a Northern seat like Makerfield, both are now essentially absent from the conversation.
Why The Right-Wing Split Matters
The numbers are stark. Combine Reform UK's 41% with Restore Britain's 7% and you get a right-of-Labour bloc on 48%, more than enough to beat Burnham's 46% in a straight fight.
The fact that this bloc is fragmented between two competing parties is, on current polling, the single decisive factor in the contest.
That has implications well beyond Makerfield. If Burnham wins on a sub-50% share against a fractured right, the read across to the wider General Election specials markets is significant, particularly the Most Seats book, where Reform's 13/8 favouritism assumes the right consolidates by the time the country goes to the polls.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet On The Makerfield By-Election
By-election markets move fast and prices can shift by the hour as fresh polling drops.
The top political betting sites tend to be quickest to react, and most major UK betting sites carry both winner and vote share markets on high-profile contests like this one.
New customers can also use free bets and welcome offers.
