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- Odds of 4/5 given that 2023 will be the hottest year ever recorded by NASA's figures
- The market goes off NASA’s GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis
- Further betting specials given around weather this year
Odds of 4/5 given that 2023 will be the hottest year ever recorded by NASA's figures
Bookies are offering giving on 2023 being the hottest year on record following 2022 being the fifth warmest year there has been according to the stats.
Earth's average surface temperature in 2022 was tied with 2015 as being the fifth warmest on record with the planet's Global Warming trend continuing.
The latest odds in the betting market say there's a 55% chance that it gets even warmer this year and breaks the record for warmest year since the records began.
Modern record-keeping began in 1880 with the global average surface temperature in 2020 joint alongside 2016 as hottest year that has ever been recorded.
It's now odds-on at 4/5 that 2023 is the hottest year on record with odds also given of 10/11 that it isn't.
The market goes off NASA’s GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis
NASA's GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis gives the temperature based on the land-ocean reading that is given on the climate.nasa.gov site.
NASA's website says, "NASA's full dataset of global surface temperatures through 2022, as well as full details with code of how NASA scientists conducted the analysis, are publicly available from GISS.
GISS is a NASA laboratory managed by the Earth Sciences Division of the agency's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University's Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York."
Further betting specials given around weather this year
Weather betting has been constantly getting new markets over the past couple of years with worries over climate change increasing the different weather outcomes that we usually see.
William Hill did have a whole host of weather specials at the start of January for 2023 including odds of 6/1 that we see the hottest day ever recorded take place at some point.
The current record for the hottest ever day recorded in the UK is at 40.3c which was hit last year in Coningsby in Lancashire on 19th July.
Take a look at what the market looked like when it was originally posted at the start of January below.
| Weather 2023 Specials | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Snow on Christmas Day | 4/6 | 60% |
| Hottest temperature 40.3c or above | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Snow on Easter Day | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Coldest temperature -27.3c or below | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Snow on King Charles Coronation | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Snow on Easter has a 9% chance of happening whereas snow falling on King Charles Coronation, set for 6th May, has just a 3.8% chance of happening according to the odds.
