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- France are 7/5 favourites at bet365 to beat Spain and reach a third successive World Cup final
- Spain are priced at 21/10, having beaten France in two consecutive major-tournament semi-finals
- All four World Cup semi-finalists occupy the top four places in the FIFA rankings
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bet365 have France as the marginal 7/5 favourites to beat Spain in tonight's first World Cup semi-final, with Spain priced at 21/10 and the draw sitting at 11/5.
It's one of the more competitively priced matches on any of the matches with betting sites this tournament.
France are vying to become just the third team to reach three successive World Cup finals, after Germany and Brazil, while Spain prepare for just their second ever appearance in the last four.
More broadly, this is the first FIFA World Cup on record since 1994 to see three or more semi-finalists occupy the top four places in the FIFA World rankings, with all four teams sitting in the top four.
France as Favourites But the Recent Record Cuts Against
Spain beat France in the semi-finals of Euro 2024 on their way to being crowned European champions. Spain beat France again in a nine-goal Nations League last-four thriller the following year.
That's back-to-back tournament last-four wins for Spain over France within the last 18 months.
A team that has beaten its opponent in the semi-finals of consecutive major competitions being priced as an underdog for the third meeting is a genuinely interesting piece of market positioning.
France's back-to-back final appearances in 2018 and 2022 have given the squad a knockout-round pedigree that bookmakers price into markets almost automatically.
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Spain's 21/10 Reflects Real Respect
Spain's tournament run has been built on the possession-heavy structure that has defined the reigning European champions' era.
That approach has historically produced strong results against opponents who commit forward, and France's own attacking shape offers exactly the type of transitions Spain's midfield has looked to control.
If the match plays to Spain's preferred rhythm, the 21/10 will look shorter in hindsight than it does now.
Spain and France's Euro 2024 semi went to a full 90 minutes, and their Nations League tie produced nine goals across a highly attacking match that could have plausibly gone anywhere.
The 11/5 draw is bookmakers acknowledging the two teams' history of tight, high-quality knockout fixtures.
Where to bet on the World Cup
For those weighing up the wider markets, first-half betting, cards and corners specials, and player scorer markets all carry their own implied probabilities worth comparing across the leading UK betting sites.
Variance between operators on secondary knockout markets can be wider than on the headline 1X2, so shopping around remains sensible.
