I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- The Labour leader has a 72% chance of not being challenged for the leadership post according to bookmakers
- But bookies give him only a 48% of losing his position before 2024 at less than Evens odds
- Andy Burnham Betting odds favourite to be the next Labor leader
- Labour party conference starts this weekend in Brighton
Ahead of this weekend Labour party conference in Brighton betting sites have betting odds available as to whether Labour leader Kier Starmer will face a leadership challenge before the next General Election.
A Labour candidate requires the nomination of at least 20% of Labour MP's to make a challenge for the leadership post and at the time of writing bookmakers think it is unlikely to happen offering odds of just 2/5 [That's a £100 bet to win just £40) that no challenge is initiated
Will Kier Starmer Face Leadership Challenge Betting Odds
|
|
Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7/4 | 36.36% |
| No | 2/5 | 71.43% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/9/2021
With bookmakers favouring a general Election in 2023, the market is based on the challenge happening before the next
Starmer Exit Date
Whilst there is a confidence that Starmer will not face an internal challenge to his leadership, punters making bets when Starmer will leave his position have been wagering at betting sites that it will be earlier than 2024, the year in which, unless anything changes, the next general election is scheduled.
There is almost a 50% chance he will cease to be the leader of the Labour party in 2023 or earlier, whilst, those probabilities reduce to 34% for 2024, and just 20% in 2025 or later.
Kier Starmer Exit Date Betting
| Year | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 or earlier | 11/10 | 48% |
| 2024 | 2/1 | 33% |
| 2025 or later | 4/1 | 20 |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/9/2021
Andy Burnham
The chances of Kier Starmer becoming the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson does rely on a number of factors, however.
- Labour winning the next general election
- Starmer still being the leader
There is also betting on who will be the next leader after Starmer should he resign or lose his position.
Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner are waiting in the wings with the latter finding. Lisa Nandy is also in betting on the next Labour leader but her future in the Labour Party is less assured.
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds
| Next Labour Leader | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 5/2 | 28.57% |
| Angela Rayner | 4/1 | 20% |
| Lisa Nandy | 10/1 | 9% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 6% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/9/2021
