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Betting Sites have Kier Starmer at a Solid 2/5 betting odds likely to Stave off Leadership Challenges

Steve Madgwick

Published: Sep 24, 7:27am Last Updated: Sep 24, 11:31am 0 Comments 33 Views

Labour Leader Kier Starmer ahead of the Labour party conference in Brighton

Bookmakers have high confidence that Kier Starmer will not face a leadership challenge before he gets his chance to become Primer Minister offering odds of just 2/5 that another MP will get the 20% nomination level required for the stand off.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com

Ahead of this weekend Labour party conference in Brighton betting sites have betting odds available as to whether Labour leader Kier Starmer will face a leadership challenge before the next General Election.

A Labour candidate requires the nomination of at least 20% of Labour MP's to make a challenge for the leadership post and at the time of writing bookmakers think it is unlikely to happen offering odds of just 2/5 [That's a £100 bet to win just £40) that no challenge is initiated

Will Kier Starmer Face Leadership Challenge Betting Odds


Odds Probability
Yes 7/4 36.36%
No 2/5 71.43%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/9/2021

With bookmakers favouring a general Election in 2023, the market is based on the challenge happening before the next

Starmer Exit Date

Whilst there is a confidence that Starmer will not face an internal challenge to his leadership, punters making bets when Starmer will leave his position have been wagering at betting sites that it will be earlier than 2024, the year in which, unless anything changes, the next general election is scheduled.

There is almost a 50% chance he will cease to be the leader of the Labour party in 2023 or earlier, whilst, those probabilities reduce to 34% for 2024, and just 20% in 2025 or later.

Kier Starmer Exit Date Betting

Year Odds Probability
2023 or earlier 11/10 48%
2024 2/1 33%
2025 or later 4/1 20

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/9/2021

Andy Burnham

The chances of Kier Starmer becoming the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson does rely on a number of factors, however.

  1. Labour winning the next general election
  2. Starmer still being the leader

There is also betting on who will be the next leader after Starmer should he resign or lose his position.

Andy Burnham is the current 5/2 favourite to be the next Labour leader after Kier Starmer but has Angela Rayner close on his heels as betting support grows for her chance.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com

Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner are waiting in the wings with the latter finding. Lisa Nandy is also in betting on the next Labour leader but her future in the Labour Party is less assured.

Next Labour Leader Betting Odds

Next Labour Leader Odds Probability
Andy Burnham 5/2 28.57%
Angela Rayner 4/1 20%
Lisa Nandy 10/1 9%
Yvette Cooper 16/1 6%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/9/2021

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