Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Raphinha now joint-favourite with Mbappe at 5/2 following latest odds movement
- Mo Salah drifts to 5/1 after Liverpool’s Champions League exit dents his Ballon d’Or hopes
- Market still wide open with Dembele and Lamine Yamal also priced within single-digit odds
Mbappe Joins Raphinha as Joint Favourite for 2025 Ballon d’Or After Odds Shorten
Kylian Mbappe has seen his odds cut to 5/2 for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, now sitting joint-favourite alongside Barcelona’s Raphinha at the top of the market with Bet365.
The Real Madrid forward continues to shine in his debut season at the Bernabéu, with pivotal goals and standout performances helping drive his side into the latter stages of the Champions League.
Just a few weeks ago, Raphinha had surged ahead as solo favourite in the market, as detailed in our previous update.
Now, the tide appears to be turning with Mbappe’s Ballon d’Or credentials backed heavily across UK betting sites and the latest odds make it neck and neck between the two La Liga stars.
| 2025 Ballon d'Or Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Raphinha | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Kylian Mbappe | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Mohamed Salah | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Vinicius Junior | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Ousmane Dembele | 9/1 | 10.0% |
What the expert says...
Mbappe’s Madrid Magic Driving Market Movement
Mbappe’s shift from 4/1 into 5/2 territory comes after a string of decisive moments in both La Liga and the Champions League.
The 25-year-old’s explosive impact since joining Madrid has only strengthened his narrative as a future Ballon d’Or winner, one that voters may find hard to ignore if he lifts European silverware in June.
After Vinicius Junior missing out on the top prize last year it may well be that 12 months on we finally see another Real Madrid winner of the award.
Ballon d'Or Betting Odds and History Of Winners
Salah Drifts, While Yamal and Dembele Lurk
Meanwhile, Mo Salah has seen his price drift to 5/1 following Liverpool’s Champions League exit, dealing a blow to his campaign.
The Egyptian’s numbers remain strong, but a lack of European silverware could once again hold him back in the final vote.
Lamine Yamal and Ousmane Dembele round out the top five, with strong club campaigns but needing a defining moment on the biggest stage to truly challenge the top two.
