What stats to use for your soccer betting tips

Betting on football is probably the most popular type of betting one can think of and there are as many strategies as there are punters I would say. 

There are more conservative type of punters, there are those who prefer to mix things up every day but there is also something that basically everybody has looked for at least once before placing a football bet - statistical information.

You can see OLBG members soccer betting tips regularly utilizing a range of stats when assessing football form. 

While relying on stats alone is a controversial type of strategy and probably one of the most rigid approaches, it will always be a classic and something that can only help whatever the big picture. 

In this short article, I will look at the most useful stats, which in this day and age are extremely easy to find online.

Tables, Form, Injuries

There are, of course, the most obvious and basic stats one can look at before even starting to analyse a football game.

Even when you know nothing about a team, you can have a pretty decent idea of what this team is about solely from its previous performances and position in the league.

I am far from concluding that one should back a team simply because it is placed higher than another team but the much deeper analysis of table positions and form can't be done without looking at the basics.

I will go even further by stating that while tables are indeed useful in getting to know teams and leagues, in modern football or even English football to be more precise, judging a book by its cover or a team by its position is the easiest path to heavy losses. This is not the case when it comes to form. 

While any team can suffer from momentary losses of form at any point in the season, cross-referencing the season expectations, injury information and form is one pretty decent way to make an informed guess as to how a certain team would do in the upcoming fixtures. 

Unfortunately all that means more research and more work into single games but I can claim by experience that people do like to convince themselves of certain conclusions by doing that extra work and feeling more scientific about their betting.

Speaking of science, the form has a much deeper layer, which is more useful to analyse and that is the opposition strength.

For a team to be called ‘in-form' from purely betting perspective, it is not sufficient just to have won three or four games in a row, but to have defeated relevant teams or direct rivals.

I remember several years ago learning a lot about the importance of knowing teams schedules from the OLBG forums, where a 5/1 value bet against what appeared an obvious favourite, was being picked with complete confidence with the argument of opposition strength. 

The team in question for all its wins had not beaten a single team from the top 10 in the division and now was playing the one in ninth. 

It is useless to say that the heavy favourite was just as heavily beaten 3:0 and the bookies were beaten too by this ‘more scientific' approach and better understanding of the term ‘form'. 

I remember that team ending up in mid-table at the end of the season, just where the pre-season expectations had it projected to finish. 

Never mind what happens for a brief period of 3-4 weeks as in a 9-10 month long season, it is consistency that matters the most, and laying teams that just never look likely to be consistent is a  great way to find that value bet.

Deeper Statistics, Shots, Possession

Since most punters do not really have the time for much in-depth analysis, certain very useful stats remain unexploited and maybe that is one of the reasons why certain bets end up losing despite looking rock solid. 

League tables and form are just the tip of the iceberg with form versus opposition strength going slightly under the surface, but the actual game's stats could create a perfect picture of the dynamics of performances of particular teams and players over longer periods of time.

Possession and number of shots are the first two pieces of information I look at when making in-play bets, but it is not only then when they can be useful.

We know that in modern-day football, the ability of teams to retain possession and create good chances is what makes them favourites, so it should not come as a surprise to notice that more often than not, bookies react to those stats by decreasing certain odds on certain teams in what is deemed ‘close games'.

If teams see more of the ball, they are getting more chances to be creative, which is why I always look at possession together with number of shots and shots on target.

If a team dominates the ball and puts up more shots game after game, winning those games, then it is obvious this team will be a favourite and rightly so. 

At the same time, there are those market favourites who might be seeing 60% possession but still only manage 2-3 shots on target or their win streaks include a lot of 1:0s.

I know Leicester won the Premier League with a string of such narrow wins and 90% of them being against the flow of possession, but if we took the time to analyse the stats of their opponents, we would conclude that in most cases the Foxes only allowed precisely 2-3 shots on target. 

They were on the back foot against the likes of Crystal Palace, Southampton and even relegated Newcastle but still won and that example must serve us well to see how such defensive efficiency can be observed solely by paying attention to possession and shots on target.

Of course, my own observations could be interpreted differently and it is up to the individual punter to draw conclusions on teams, streaks of results and importance of possession, but what should be a clear consensus is that these kinds of stats can only help us determine whether to trigger a bet or look elsewhere.

League Statistics, Goals, Draws, History

Back to the tip of the iceberg, we also have the typical league stats, some of which do play a huge part in finding value on the more obscure markets.

I always look at such simple things as the average number of goals in games, the average number of draws or historical data about leagues as the starting point when selecting games from countries I have less knowledge about.

Historical data could be misleading as teams, players and season profiles change, but you would agree that a league can't turn from highly competitive to completely one-sided with 2-3 favourites in a matter of a year or so. 

What I mean by highly competitive leagues is such where teams are balanced and offer more draws or even better, more surprising outsider wins.

While obviously interesting, they are also more difficult to figure out and require that additional time in discovering the dynamics. 

As for goals, you can't expect a league where the majority of teams have averaged less than 2 goals a game in the past 3-4 seasons or who rarely hit more than 5 shots on target a game to suddenly turn into a high-scoring league. 

It is worth monitoring those as they are incredibly consistent over long periods of time and if you have not done much betting on them in the past, you might be tempted by the value of certain markets without understanding why is it so. 

French League 2 is what immediately comes to mind as I have been doing a lot of work and even published blogs on it in the past. 

This league has been dictating unders on the goal market for ages and bookies value those unders accordingly.

Lastly, while historical data on leagues is useful and interesting to analyse, historical data on teams I consider a double-edged sword.

I have seen and used the argument of a team doing historically well against another team, but this is only valid when teams do not go through serious changes.

Surely up until 2010 Man City were often historically beaten by Tottenham, but then they won eight of the following nine games in this rivalry. 

It is yet again a question of cross-referencing and being up to date with team and even organisation dynamics.

In the lower leagues it is more difficult for sure, but this is all part of the punter's job.

If winning on football betting is of interest to you please check out the invaluable how to assess football form article via the highlighted link.