6:30 Southwell Tips

A poor draw but Hector rides this course better than anyone and the selection is only two points higher than his latest win here which was in this grade.

This horse was very unlucky not to win last time out when flying home to finish 2nd. With the handicapper leaving him alone for that run, I fancy a big run today.

Ararat has won twice over Course and Distance the last two times but is still three pounds below the Group win last year. Always just seems to do enough, but as a front runner normally dictates, and if allowed, can go close again in the same grade in his attempt to complete the hat-trick.

Papa Cocktail (IRE) is a 6-year-old gelding by Churchill, trained by Michael Herrington, and will be ridden by Jack Mitchell in the 18:30 at Southwell tomorrow. He runs off an official rating of 77, and last time out here he finished second of 12 over this trip at Wolverhamptonunder jack Mitchell, showing he handles the all-weather surface well and carries good form into this. Mitchell’s booking again adds confidence??'he has a strong touch on Herrington’s sprinters. If Papa Cocktail breaks well and settles just off the early pace, he looks a strong each-way contender in what is a competitive handicap.

My win selection for this one is ABERAMA GOLD, a hardened sprint handicapper with a peak RPR of 113, higher than anything here. Won this course and distance in August off 83, now runs off 85, and with Horgan's 5lb claim, he's effectively racing from 80 in a to 85. That's a gift. Strong 6f Tapeta record (13 wins, 19 places from 90) and recent runs in much deeper Class 2 company where he's been competitive. Draw 6 gives him the perfect position to track the likely strong pace and pounce. Class edge over all rivals including thriving Ararat. He's the one for me in this one today.

Stable remains in form. Selection shaped as if amiss last time but has a chance if back to his best here, as prior to last time had won 2 of his last 3 races. Makes debut on Tapeta.

A bit better drawn than the main selection and has the best of the speed figures. Turf winner in Ireland and makes stable debut for Charlie Johnston.

Preference here goes to the Ruth Carr runner, Fiscal Policy. Arrives with a bit to prove having finished way down the field at Chelmsford in June. Held plausible excuses, having maybe been drawn unfavorably. Bounced back to form next time up when not beaten far in a 6f handicap at York on turf. He finished a length behind Aberama Gold off 9st 9lb. Looks well treated here off 9st 3lb. Prominent runner that is only 2lb above his career best off 77. Holds respect off a solid AW strike rate. Goes well on this surface.

Bosh finished three lengths behind Aberama Gold over course and distance in August but is now five pounds better off. He showed better form last time at Catterick in October when 3rd and could go well from the inside rail draw at Southwell over 6f.

Solvency has transferred to the James Owen stable (14 percent strike rate in the last fortnight). Two wins from five starts. Steps up to 6 furlongs. Each way chance.

Returning to its former stable, Buccabay might just revive under Eddie Greaterex. It's nicely weighted now, and although it's a tough draw, it looks each way material.

I can't let this Kingman filly go unbacked at 25/1 since she's thrown in on the pick of her 2yo form. She was placed in a Listed race, for example, when beaten less than 2 lengths, and she had a stack of 85-90 rated horses behind her there. She races here off 82 with a very useful apprentice taking off a further 5lb. She needs to learn to settle better, but hopefully, the jockey switch will help, and the trainer has had 6 places from his last 7 runners, so hopefully, she can show her true ability here.