4:50 Newbury Tips

Four times a winner here and will like this soft ground, with any further rain improving his chances. Slow away but kept on well at York last time out. The return of Kieran Shoemark to the saddle is a positive, having won over course and distance on him and been runner-up over course and distance the other time he has taken the ride on this 7-year-old.

Mustazeed has ousted Atherstone Warrior from market leadership but I can’t be having the former given K Shoemark’s 17% SR (A/E 0.5) on favourites in October and Territories’ 20% SR (A/E 0.48) with favs coming down in class. AW absolutely bolted up at Sandown LTO (5.5l), with the soft ground over 10f unlocking his stamina and he’s got the same conditions again here, albeit off a 10lb higher mark. We don’t know where his ceiling is yet, so I’m willing to take a chance on him backing that success up at 9/2, especially given G Moore’s 46% SR (A/E 1.44) with fancied runners in Autumn who won LTO.

Faye Bramley has a terrific 18% strike rate on turf and she clearly knows how to place her horses well. This one makes its debut for her here and she's booked a jockey who's been doing well for her, something she might not perhaps have done if the horse was likely to need the run. The horse hacked up by 4 lengths on his penultimate start before being asked to race over too far last time out. The runner up in that winning race has since hacked up by a huge margin at Epsom and this horse looks way overpriced to me at 12/1.

Rossa has King Al's 2 wins under his belt. He's back here to ride King Al, which tells you all you need to know from the stable. You can cover Each Way to break even with 4 places on offer, but I think King Al should win. C&D and going winner.

On ratings, this horse will be needing to find a bit more improvement but that is possible after signs of better form last time out. Ideal trip and ground conditions for this horse today. Horses from this trainer often run well here at Newbury. Small each-way tip.