4:30 Leicester Tips

Led for a long way until losing three places inside the final furlong over 6 furlongs at Ripon last time out. That race was in Class 2 company, and the ease in grade to Class 4 combined with the drop in trip appeal.

Tan Rapido has conditions to suit and if returning to the level of form shown in July when following up a Chelmsford run with a runner-up effort at Yarmouth.

This one is the best bet of the day for me and should shorten in the market. He makes his handicap debut here off 84 and the winning run on debut on rain softened ground is all the clues we need to suggest he's on a winnable mark here. That win in that class 3 novice race on debut had a horse over a length back in third that has since gone down by less than 2 lengths in a Group 3 and is rated 106. Natural Force was well on top of that one so the 9/2 looks great value to me especially since he's shown he can handle any give in the ground.

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Smart Vision is in good form at the moment since being dropped to 5f with a win and three places in his last four runs. Won at Beverley in August and followed that up with a 2nd by a neck on heavy going in a Class 3 at Chester and a 3rd of 13 at Ripon 7 days later. Reunited with Lewis Edmunds who has four wins and five places from his 15 rides. The elephant in the room here is the low stall, but hopefully will not have too much of an effect on a straight course, and stall 1 won in the last 5f race held here.

Tiva has won 3 of her 11 starts. She won a Class 5 5f handicap at Ripon in August off 71 and then defied an 8lbs penalty to follow up in a Class 4 at Newmarket 19 days later. She was then thrown in at the deep end in a Mares Listed race at Ayr where, after a slow start, she finished 11th of 12. Back in a Class 4 and only 5lbs higher than at Newmarket, she looks a good EW bet.

A stop-start career so far for the 4yo. He went close in a Group 3 early last year. Four runs this year, all in Class 2 company, not great, but he was only beaten 1/2L early August - good-looking form. He was rated 9lb higher on his return this year. A reduced mark, a drop into Class 4 company, slightly slower ground conditions, a strong jockey booking - all point to a possible big run.

Tried to steal a class 3 LTO and may have succeeded if the ground was better. Drops to class 4 here. 2 wins, 2 seconds in class 4s from 5 attempts.