4:35 Carlisle Tips

Lightly raced 4yo, three runs this year. Possible excuses last time out. He was a good third in his two previous races, beaten by handicap rivals now rated 98, 107, 102 and 111. Coming from the rear in those races, but he ran a big race last year when making the running, and there could be a change of tactic in this handicap. Good jockey change, decent 83 racing mark, and he's now facing rivals rated 0??'85.

Phillip Makin’s ultra-consistent four-year-old gelding sits right at the peak of our target-efficiency matrix. The stable maintains a dominant 21.4% strike rate when striking with mile handicappers inside this exact low-80s OR tier. Boasting an exceptional Course and Distance winning pedigree layout on this track, he relishes quick summer ground configurations. Partnered with premium jockey Sam James from an optimized inside launch pad in Stall 4, he is beautifully primed to land this prestigious prize.

There was plenty of money for Canvas at Newmarket, backed from 12/1 into 13/2 on course despite still looking as though he was carrying some condition on his seasonal reappearance. That looked a very competitive contest with several solid handicappers, so he ran well in defeat, forcing the pace until the final 100 yards before just getting tired. A dual course-and-distance winner at Doncaster, he was withdrawn after becoming upset in the stalls. Made all from this mark last September at York and should come on plenty for that first run of the season. He is well drawn in stall one at a track where prominent runners have some sort of advantage. I can see him going well at around 7/1 with bookies going five places.

Financer is a very inconsistent animal. However, if he should fancy things in this historic handicap, he is capable of going very close. His inconsistency is the prime reason he has dropped so far in the ratings, but his mark looks seriously dangerous to me. He has won at Class 2 level in the past. Indeed, he was very impressive when landing that Ayr race in fine style. He generally runs at further than this trip, but the blinkers are added for the first time, which may just sharpen him up. The stable are in tremendous form, so Financer shouldn't be treated lightly.

Three-time winner who has been running consistently well and finished 2nd in all of the last three races. A continuation of that form gives at least an each-way chance.

BE FRANK has been a mixed bag since swapping yards from Henry Candy to Ian Williams 18 months ago. The handicapper has been slow to release his grip. He was once a mid-80s horse. He was given an interesting ride on his seasonal return at Chester, which went into my notebook as a possible sighter for this race. That race at Chester on 12th June was his first race in 9 months, so he is entitled to come on for the run. He ran again interestingly quite quickly, just 12 days later, with a professional this time in the saddle. He has been contesting Class 3 and occasionally Class 2 in his career. On one or two bits of form he is not out of this by any means. Trip, ground and a strong pace will suit. He's been going off at considerably shorter odds than this in his races. He also holds another entry in a stronger contest at York that weekend. The draw looks workable and I like the booking of Jason Hart; I can see him being backed. I envisaged around 8/1, so I feel at 18/1 with 5 places on offer there is very good value

Mr. Lincoln is only one win from twelve attempts, but this is his fourth race up from having some time off. He ran well last time out. Worth an each-way shout.

Steph Hollinshead holds a highly stable 16.1% win efficiency when dropping her target runners into this specific 76??'80 ratings ceiling. Arriving on a sharp upward curve following a ready third-place performance on turf last time out, this consistent grey gelding escapes a physical penalty here. Booked under Clifford Lee from the absolute golden inside rail berth in Stall 2, his tactical cruise speed will ensure a perfect prominent tracking run path.