8:30 Ayr Tips

Unexposed 3yo. Five career runs. He's finished a close 3rd in his two handicap races this year and now faces much lower rated rivals in this 0-50 classified contest. Weighted to run a big race and there's room for plenty more improvement.

Wicklow Way arrives in peak form following an authoritative recent victory over a mile and two furlongs. Well-weighted and clearly thriving over this distance. My NAP bet today.

Of interest here: being sent over from Ireland and a good jockey is booked, who has ridden four winners recently from the last dozen rides. Mixes hurdles with the flat but is better at this discipline, with flat wins around this distance. 6 lb higher than when winning in the spring at Limerick but still much lower than best winning form on the level. Has to be of interest here, switching back from hurdles at this lowly level.

By moving down to a classified stakes-type test, the strict rigor of pure handicaps is removed. The horse competes in a category that is more accessible on paper.

2nd and 3rd in his last two classified races, and from a yard who won this last year. First run for a new trainer who does well at this track. The winning time for this race should be around 2 minutes 10 seconds, and based on his last two runs where he finished around that time, he looks a touch overpriced.

not getting any younger and his overall form has not been inspiring but this is a slightly easier race and off 47 at a big price looks a value ew punt