4:30 Ascot Tips

Arguably was most unlucky last time out at Goodwood. Compensation awaits if all falls right. Ryan Moore to do the steering..masterful jockey. Hopefully be thereabouts

Two return runs this year for the 5yo, back in May, not great but the yard has been in much better shape since and he'll come here fresh after a 12 week break. He posted three big RPR ratings over this 8f trip this time last year. Weighted to go well if ready after his break.

Cerulean Bay brings the strongest recent Class 2 mile evidence in the field. His second of 22 at Goodwood came after a respectable fourth in Class 1 company, so the current mark and top weight are earned rather than signs he is out of his depth. He has also twice placed over Ascot's mile, which reduces track risk even though he is still chasing a first win here. The main reservation is the 64 kg burden, and there is no clear pace advantage in the supplied card. Even so, his recent consistency is stronger than most of the market leaders: Ozat arrives off repeated heavy defeats, while Ebt's Guard was behind him at Goodwood. Draw 9 is workable in a 12-runner field, so Cerulean Bay gets the vote on class and current form rather than speculation.

The Uncontested Value Anchor: Ebt's Guard #1 Selection Ebt's Guard sweeps top honors on pure historical replication math. He is the defending 2025 race champion, having won this exact Shergar Cup Mile contest off an official mark of 99. While he carries 4 lbs more than that winning baseline today, he returns to his absolute optimum tracking environment over Ascot's round mile course. Landing a highly efficient stalking position in Stall 7 guarantees a smooth, mid-division run, transforming his 7/1 live price into a definitive overlay against a true 4/1 line.

Ran at good third at Newmarket in July following a four month break & backed that up when runner-up here a fortnight ago. Looks solid ew.

Double course winner Popmaster seems a bit underestimated in the early exchanges and is worth a small each-way bet at 20/1. A regular here at Ascot, where he has run so many good races, he produced two good efforts at Epsom and Sandown recently in competitive handicaps, suggesting he is back to a potentially good mark after filling the frame at huge odds. Usually held up towards the rear, he can take advantage of the expected strong early pace and pick up the pieces late on. The ground will be fine and the yard could hardly be in better form at the moment.