2:45 Ascot Tips

Kalpana has yet to win this season, but she has run in some high-class races and finished 7th in the Arc last time, two places ahead of Quisisana in 9th. She will prefer the faster going at Ascot, whereas one of her main rivals, Estrange, usually only runs when the going is on the soft side of good.

Estrange would be much shorter on softer ground, but two of her four wins have come on good ground, so she should be fine here. A Group 2 and Group 3 win at Haydock show her quality. She had little chance at the weights against Minnie Hauk last time but was only beaten 3.5 lengths, giving 9 lbs on Good to Firm ground. Even a repeat of that run would make 7/1 a big price.

Quisisana is unbeaten in four runs with 'good' described in the going description and is also unbeaten in two runs under this jockey. He ran well enough to finish 9th of 17 in the Arc a few weeks ago on unsuitable very soft ground. On this quicker surface, he can go very close.

Toughed it out to get the better of the re-opposing Danielle in the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes over further at Goodwood last time out. The first two were clear from the rest of the field that day, and she looks like one to keep the right side of on.

Race 4 at Ascot today is the Fillies & Mares Stakes - Group 1 for 3-year-olds and upwards over 2,406 m. The suggested wager is for the each way on the Irish raider One Look from the Paddy Twomey yard, and will be ridden by James Doyle. This daughter of Gleneagles is a 5-time winner from just 13 starts. She has two Group 3 wins thus far, and her latest was a pulsating head 3rd in the Prix de l'Opéra Longines - Group 1 at Longchamp in Paris. She has a top chance in this.

This looks a massive price to me, especially after her run when beaten by just over a length by Minnie Hawk in the Irish Oaks. The 4th last time was over an inadequate 1m2f, and back over 1m4f should play to her strengths. She also gets the 3yo allowance.

On the face of it, this is one of the most interesting races on the card for me, and Latakia has to be an interesting outsider. Second string for Juddmonte clearly with Kalpana involved, but she’s got some decent form in her own right with a comfortable win at Deauville in August being the pick of it. She had Dare To Dream beaten all ends up, who herself had finished not too far behind Arc third Sosie earlier in the season, so it’s a fair enough market. Up in trip last time, she still beat Bedtime Story off worse terms and is near enough double her price here, which doesn’t look right, and she just didn’t stay the new trip on the ground there. Back to a sounder surface should help her, whilst it could hinder others. She’s a daughter of Frankel from a pedigree line that seemingly likes better ground, and a sparkling pedigree and lofty price tag just don’t equate to a 20/1 shot in my eyes, so I’ll give her an each-way chance.