3:26 Leopardstown Tips

Has to improve to win this. Upped in class, but she won a handicap very easily last time and deserves her chance. She needs a strongly run race, especially at this trip, which she will get here, as well as a galloping track, which this track is. She has course and distance form, winning here on soft, so ticks all the boxes.

Acapulco Bay ran well when fourth, beaten 4 lengths in the CMG Group Stakes over 12 furlongs last time. Effective on this going and suited by 10 furlongs, and progressive for top course trainer A P O'Brien with Wayne Lordan riding. Fair mark at 104, capable of tracking the pace, and is a win chance here.

My selection for this race is SHARANGA, a lightly-raced 3yo filly (1 run) from the Dermot Weld yard that has an exceptional record in this race (8 previous wins). She's a completely unexposed type who was a deeply impressive winner on soft ground on her sole start, marking her out as a filly with huge latent ability. Her world-class pedigree is the clincher; her sire, Zarak, has a phenomenal 30% strike rate with his progeny on soft ground. Ticking every box for this test, for me, she looks the archetypal progressive winner in waiting.

Trustyourinstinct looks to have a fair chance of landing this race and could go very well for owner JP McManus. Each way looks like the most sensible bet.

Certain Lad ran below par when fourth in the Doonside Cup at Ayr. Effective on this going and generally performs best around 10f and acts on any ground. Total runs: 30 with 6 wins (20%) and 9 places (30%). Class and handicap mark of 107 is fair, and he can be competitive if recapturing form. Each way chance, stable consistent at this level, and he can bounce back here.

Cloud Seeker won back in May and has been closely placed in a couple of premier handicaps. He could be worth a chance in this step up to listed company and should handle the going EW.

A listed race and Birthe looks a big price for a filly who has scored at Group 2 level in France. Disappointing since moving to Joseph Patrick O'Brien but she was not beaten far last time, finishing third despite the vet reporting that she was lame. Ten furlongs on soft going clearly suits. Cheekpieces are fitted for the first time and it is hoped they will help Birthe recapture her French form.