Week 4 NFL Preview - Headlines and Best Matchups, Picks & Betting Odds

Each week Mike Calabrese will be offering his view on the best NFL picks week by week of the headline and some under-the-radar matchups. You will also find his College Football Preview too.

All wagers can be placed with licensed Sportsbooks in the US

Headliners

Minnesota Vikings-3 vs. New Orleans Saints (43) (London, England)

9:30a ET on NFL Network

The history of the London Series is pretty lopsided. If you take out the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, who have appeared at Wembley Stadium every year since 2013, the favorites in this series are 18-3-1 straight up and 15-7 against the spread.

This game, to be played in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, looks like it’ll stick to the script. Minnesota finds itself in the top ten of power rankings across all reputable media outlets: ESPN, NFL, The Athletic, CBS, etc. The Saints, on the other hand, can be found in the bottom third of the league after limping out to an 1-2 start. 

Offensively, New Orleans can’t seem to string together a fully half of competent play. In their last eight quarters of play the Saints have been blanked five times. Jameis Winston, battling serious back and ankle injuries, has been a shell of himself. Somehow he remains an above average downfield threat, but most of his big throws have come late in games with defenses blitzing less and playing prevent. 

Defensively, the Saints have been fine against the run and elite against the pass. It doesn’t hurt that they’ve faced Marcus Mariota, a wounded Buccaneers offense and Baker Mayfield, but ranking top five across the board in every major defensive passing metric is still a significant accomplishment. 

This explains why this total appears so low at first glance. Beyond the Saints issues on offense and their ability to stop the pass, the under has been a great play in the UK since 2017. Unders are 10-5 in international games in the past five years.

Betting Angle:

Minnesota is the much more complete team, but with Dalvin Cook banged up and the Saints likely to blanket Justin Jefferson all game, I’m not sure bettors can count on them to score more than 24 points against a hard-hitting Saints defense. For that reason, I’m going to roll with the trend and play under 43 in this overseas slugfest. 

Buffalo Bills-3 @ Baltimore Ravens (51)

1p ET on CBS

This could be an AFC Title Game preview in the Charm City on Sunday afternoon. According to The Athletic, this is a top-five power ranking matchup and could easily be the QB duel of the season. ESPN’s QBR metric has Lamar Jackson ranked second and Josh Allen ranked third. 

The Ravens are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog over the last five years, which makes this number a bit surprising. Buffalo is also 0-7 in one-score games dating back to the start of the 2021 season. 

Offensively, this has the makings of an elite shootout. The Bills are averaging over 30 points per game, move the ball at will (6.2 ypp, 5th) and are top five in the league on 3rd and 4th downs. The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring and yards per play, and can boast the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker. Needless to say, playing an under here won’t be for the faint of heart. Each team is capable of scoring on two to three drives in a row without breaking a sweat. 

One encouraging element, on the defensive front for the Ravens has been the return of Marcus Peters. The Ravens are dead last in the NFL in passing defense, but Peters made his mark last week against New England. The crafty veteran defended a pass, forced a fumble, recovered a fumble, and picked off a pass in their 11-point win at Foxborough. They’ll need him to play at that elite level if they hope to slow down Allen and the BIlls. 

Betting Angle:

You can talk yourself into the Ravens ML, given the electric play of Lamar Jackson. Or you can side with Josh Allen and the Bills point-a-minute offense. But why not count on both quarterbacks putting on MVP-level performances in a shootout by playing over 51? I would play this total all the way up to 55.5. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles-6.5 (46)

1p ET on CBS

Doug Pederson returns to Philadelphia. Will the local crowd boo or cheer the only head coach in franchise history to deliver a Super Bowl trophy? Given Philly’s track record, it’ll probably be a mix of both before the game kicks off. Once the Eagles take the field, I’m not sure he can expect any Brotherly Love. 

The Jags have been a pleasant surprise in the early going, steaming out to a 2-1 record. They could easily be 3-0 had they held onto a fourth-quarter lead against the Washington Commanders. But this Jacksonville rebuild is still in need of a true challenge and facing the Eagles will be a memorable litmus test. 

The Eagles are fielding a top-five offense and defense in 2022, and their pass defense has blossomed into one of the best in the NFL. The Birds are 6th in sack rate, 10th in interception rate, and allowing a minuscule 4.4 yards per attempt. Game flow has forced teams to abandon the run, so it will be critical for Jacksonville to stay close to the Eagles so that they can utilize James Robinson on the ground. The second-year pro has three touchdowns and ran for 100 yards on 17 carries during last week’s blowout of the Chargers.

A key factor here is the Jags travel schedule. They are completing a road trip that saw them go coast-to-coast, LA to Philadelphia. In the last ten years, teams that have completed the three time zone back-to-back road trip are 18-29-1 ATS (40.4%), including a 4-13 ATS mark when facing a team above .500 in the second game.

Betting Angle:

If this game were to be played in Jacksonville and the Eagles were the one at the travel disadvantage I could talk myself into a potential upset. But given how well the Eagles have looked through three weeks and the Jaguars relative inexperience, I have to play the Birds minus the points. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1 (45.5) (Sunday Night Football)

8:20 ET on NBA

Ready for a shocking stat? According to Evan Abrams of the Action Network, Tom Brady is 2-12 against the spread in his last 14 Primetime games. But it’s not all doom and gloom for Brady and the Bucs. Their heartbreaking loss to Green Bay at home last week could signal a bounceback for Brady. He is a matching 7-2 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss as the Bucs’ QB1. 

This line opened as Kansas City-1.5 but it has shifted to Tampa Bay-1. Sharp bettors are loading up on Brady to get back on track, bolstered by the return of Mike Evans. Brady’s go-to receiver has served his one-game suspension and Tampa could also be welcoming back Chris Godwin and Julio Jones if their rehab remains on schedule. If all three are back in the fold, this will be a compelling pass attack once again.

Kansas City limps in after a shocking loss on the road to Indianapolis. The Chiefs couldn’t run the ball at all against the Colts, and as a result Mahomes was in obvious passing situations for most of the game. Without that balance, the Colts dropped six and seven defenders into coverage and held Mahomes to a line of 20-for-35 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Here comes the Tampa run defense that is top eight in every meaningful statistical category on the ground.

Betting Angle:

Andy Reid is usually good in these spots during his career. Coming off of a loss, when catching between 1-4 points on the road, he’s 6-3 ATS in his career. When you pair this with the coin flip that Brady vs. Mahomes has become (Brady is up 3-2 SU/ATS) you start to wonder if Brady and the Bucs are getting a little too much credit in this one. I’ll take the Hall of Fame coach and former MVP to get the best of Brady in a close, hard-fought win on SNF. 

Under-The-Radar

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants-3 (39.5)

1p ET on FOX

One of these teams will leave the field with a 3-1 record and realistic playoff aspirations. That’s an incredible statement when you consider both teams are piloted by QBs with sub-35 QBR ratings. 

Both teams prefer to play and win ugly, and both can point to a successful running game. The Bears run it more than any team in the NFL (65.4%) and rank top five in yards per game, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns. The Giants are averaging 5.6 yards per carry (2nd) and rack up 169.3 yards per game on the ground (4th). 

Interestingly, both teams seem powerless to stop the run. The Giants have been gouged between the tackles (25th), but the Bears (30th) are even worse. Will that translate to one of the fastest games in the NFL this season, with each team gobbling up the clock on long 10+ play drives? That seems likely. 

Justin Fields has only completed 23 passes this season. For perspective, three quarterbacks (Allen, Flacco, Murray) have completed over 90 passes in three games this season. Daniel Jones has been called into duty more often for the Giants, but that’s not saying much. When you add up the sacks taken (13), interceptions (2) and fumbles lost (1) by Jones this year, that figure is four-times larger than his total completions over 20 yards this season (4). 

Betting Angle:

This is an awful quarterback matchup between two teams that will succeed at running and controlling the football. If either red zone defense hunkers down and prevents touchdowns inside the 20, this game could be an easy under target. Given the fact that the Bears are the 8th-best red zone defense and the Giants are the 7th-best, I’ll make that bet. 

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers-1.5 (43) (Monday Night Football)

8:15p ET on ESPN

The defending Super Bowl champs head up I-5 to face their NFC West rivals. After a humbling Week 1 loss to the Bills at home, the Rams have put together one solid offensive performance (31 points vs. ATL) and one strong defensive outing (12 points vs. AZ) on tape. Can they put it all together against a stout 49er defense on Monday Night? 

While the Rams are looking to play their first complete football game, the 49ers have some major issues to address on offense. They lost Trey Lance for the year and it’s plain as day that Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo are stucking in an arranged marriage that neither party cares for deeply. The 49ers rank 28th in scoring offense and find themselves in the bottom of the league in yards per game through the air, completion percentage, and pass rate. If Deebo Samuels isn’t making it happen after the catch, this offense isn’t hitting anything big through the air. 

There are a few trends at play worth mentioning against the spread in this one. Kyle Shanahan’s record as a favorite dating back to the start of the 2017 season: 17-26-1 ATS (third-worst leaguewide). Sean McVay, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS as a dog vs. divisional opponents.

Betting Angle:

I’m not going to overthink this one. The Rams have the better coach, quarterback and player on the field (Cupp). When the chips are down, I don’t have faith that the Shanahan-Garoppolo combo is going to find a way to right the ship. I’ll take the Rams on the moneyline at +110.