College Football Week 5 Viewers Guide - Betting Picks and Latest News

Headliners

Week 4 College football preview is ready to go with all of Mike Calabrese's best picks for you to consider single wagers or parlays. Ensure you are using the best betting site for college football when playing these picks and select from the best betting sites in your state for college football.

#15 Washington-3 @ UCLA (66) (Friday)

10:30p ET on ESPN

Washington has been a pleasant surprise out West. The former national power has essentially been an also-ran in the past three seasons, fumbling the transition from Chris Petersen to Jimmy Lake. But a new coaching staff and transfer portal quarterback have pumped life back into the Dawgs. 

Michael Penix Jr. is thriving in Kalen DeBoer’s system. His 12:1 TD-INT ratio is tops nationally and his 9.7 yards per attempt explain why this is one of the nation’s most explosive offenses. The Huskies average over seven plays of 20+ yards per game, ranking fifth nationally. They’ve also done a masterful job protecting Penix Jr., posting the 6th lowest sack rate in the country. 

Defensively, UW is far less advanced and that could hold them back from true Pac-12 title contention. Opponents are averaging 8.3 yards per attempt through the air (103rd) and have no problem converting third downs (48.9%, 117th). Washington has made up for these deficiencies by creating havoc in the form of sacks and interceptions. The Huskies are top-15 in both categories. 

UCLA has done a great job protecting Dorian Thompson-Robinson and as a result the senior quarterback has cut back on turnover-worthy plays. Pairing an efficient passing attack with their bread and butter (uptempo spread option), has yielded an offense pumping in north of 40 points per game. Their defensive stats, by and large, have all improved year over year but it’s hard to put much stock in them given the woeful competition. UCLA’s opponents have a combined record of 6-10 straight up, which includes two FCS wins for Alabama State. 

Betting Angle:

Both offenses have looked special at times this season, while both defenses have struggled a bit. UCLA, in their only test of the young season, surrendered 31 points to South Alabama through three quarters before stiffening up in final fifteen minutes. This has me leaning towards the over, especially when you consider that both these teams are top-40 in terms of pace. I expect a bit of a track meet in Pasadena and would play this total all the way up to 69.5.

#7 Kentucky vs. #14 Ole Miss-6.5 (54)

12p ET on ESPN

Kentucky and Kansas are both undefeated through four games, giving this season distinct 2007 vibes. While Kansas appears to be a one-trick pony (48.5 ppg), Kentucky can point to strengths on both sides of the ball to explain their hot start. 

The Kentucky defense, currently ranked sixth by ESPN’s SP+ system, looked a bit shaky last week in a lookahead spot against Northern Illinois. But outside of that performance, they’ve been adept at getting off the field on third down (17th). They’ve paired that salty defense with Will Levis and an explosive receiving corps that doesn’t appear to be missing Wan’Dale Robinson as much as pundits predicted during the offseason. Tayvion Robinson and Dane Key have found a way to break the big one against defenses all month. 

Ole Miss doesn’t feel like a classic Lane Kiffin coached team. The passing attack has not materialized with Jaxon Dart as the helm. As a result, the Rebels have quickly pivoted to being one of the most run-heavy teams in the entire country (68.3%, 8th). Luckily, for Ole Miss supporters, the running game is carrying it’s weight. Mississippi is averaging 296.7 yards per game on the ground (2nd) at a 5.7 yards per carry clip (17th). And defensively, this may be Kiffin’s best group since he took the top job in Oxford. Their pass rush has given opponents fits (19th in sack rate) and they’ve been stellar on third downs (17th). But the real key is they’re eliminating the big play. Opponents have just eight plays of 20+ through four games, ranking the Ole Miss defense fifth nationally in that key metric. 

If you’re looking for a historic edge in terms of performance against the spread, this game isn’t for you. Kiffin is just 5-5-1 as a home favorite at Ole Miss, while Mark Stoops is a matching 18-18 against the closing number as a road dog. 

Betting Angle:

Chris Rodriguez Jr. is rumored to be playing for Kentucky, which would be a nice bonus for an offense in need of a boost on the ground. But even with their star running back in the fold, it’s been the UK line that has been most troubling in September. Kentucky is 101st in stuff rate allowed and 128th in sack rate allowed. Given those deficiencies, I’ll back Ole Miss to take care of business at home behind a stellar defense of their own. 

#2 Alabama-17.5 @ #20 Arkansas (61)

3:30p ET on CBS

Arkansas simply outplayed Texas A&M last week. But a goal-line fumble that turned into a defensive touchdown for A&M shifted the game entirely. And just to add insult to injury, their placekicker missed a short kick off the top of the goal post to end the game. Had Arkansas won that game, as their 67% postgame win expectancy indicated, this spread would be much closer to ten points than to the current 17.5. 

Alabama, according to ESPN’s SP+ analysis, fields the fourth best offense and defense this season. But the Crimson Tide passing attack looked lethargic against Texas two weeks ago. And their overall metrics have been buoyed by blowouts overly lowly Utah State, UL Monroe and Vanderbilt. Are they the better team in this matchup? Absolutely. But this spread screams blowout and I’m not confident they have the perimeter weapons to fully take advantage of the Arkansas secondary. 

Speaking of the Hogs secondary, they are coming off their best performance of 2022. The defense as a whole held A&M to just 17 points offensively, and they confused Max Johnson (11-for-21, 151 yards) all night with pressure and different coverage looks. This is still a vulnerable pass defense, but it was very encouraging for them to put the clamps on a divisional opponent the way they did Saturday night. 

Offensively, had they capitalized on their red zone opportunities, Arkansas would be undefeated and KJ Jefferson would be a viable candidate for the Heisman Trophy. But that’s how narrow the margin of error is in the SEC. Having opportunities and cashing in on them are two different beasts in the conference where “It Just Means More.”  

Betting Angle:

My power rankings call for this spread to come in at Alabama-13.5, so crossing over two key numbers (14, 17) is enough to make this a strong play on Arkansas plus the points. The key will be red zone efficiency and a bounceback performance from Rocket Sanders. Jefferson’s backfield mate needs to help Arkansas play keep away from the Alabama offense. If they can do that, thereby protecting a defense that gives up too many big plays, I think they’ll be in this game in the fourth quarter. 

#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson-6.5 (40)

7:30p ET on ESPN

This is easily NC State’s “Game of the Century.” This is as close as they’ve been to national prominence since 2002 when they opened the season 9-0 and rose to No. 10 in the AP Poll. Philip Rivers and a stingy defense then dropped three straight one-possession games, dropping out of the rankings altogether. And that has been the Wolfpack way for years. Tease their fanbase with hope and then lose the games that matter in heartbreaking fashion. 

But this season they enter with a bit of swagger. This same team from Raleigh knocked off Clemson last season and finished the season ranked for the first time since 2017. They have a top ten defense according to ESPN’s SP+ and absolutely stuff the run. Offensively, they’ve been up and down but Devin Leary continues to provide a steady hand at quarterback, evidenced by his three game run in which he’s accounted for 10 TDs against just one turnover. He was special in last year’s upset of Clemson (238 yards, 4 TDs) and will need to be again. 

Clemson is just as hard to nail down this season as the Wolfpack. Preseason it seemed as though they would field an elite defense and likely would need to make a change at quarterback. Yet, here they are coming off of a 51-45 overtime victory in Winston-Salem that saw their beleaguered quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei, play the best game of life (423 total yards, 6 TDs). 

Since Clemson made the leap to annual title contender (2015) oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly. As a result, Clemson has only covered 45% of their home games as a favorite. NC State, meanwhile, rarely makes bettors smile as a road dog. Since 2015, the Wolfpack are an anemic 5-11 (31%) ATS when catching points away from Carter-Finley Stadium. 

Betting Angle:

DJ Uiagalelei isn’t as good as he looked on Saturday and their defense isn’t as bad as Sam Hartman made them look either. But the air of invincibility has already left Dabo Swinney’s team and NC State has the defense to turn this game into a rock fight. I’ll go with the ACC challengers to pull an upset outright at +210 on the moneyline. 

Under-The-Radar

#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State-7 (65)

3:30p ET on ABC

Florida State, a proud program that has won three national titles since 1993, is on the verge of being back in the ACC title hunt. But for the college football world to truly take them seriously, they’ll need to light up the scoreboard against a porous Demon Deacon defense. 

Wake Forest has given up 112 points in the past three weeks. That includes non-conference tilts with Liberty and Vanderbilt. Dave Clawson’s defense is 104th in scoring and 91st in total defense. And now they’re facing off against one of the nation’s most explosive offenses. Florida State is averaging eight plays from scrimmage that go for 20 or more yards, tops nationally. Jordan Travis has blossomed into an elite quarterback (8th in QBR). Florida State will be able to score at will playing at home.

But can the Noles slow a high-scoring Wake offense piloted by a crafty veteran? Sam Hartman carved up, what was previously believed to be, an elite Clemson defense. His line of 337-6 TDs should strike fear into an FSU defense that is allowing opposing passers to connect on two-thirds of their attempts (102nd). If Hartman gets in a groove this game has shootout written all over it. 

Betting Angle:

Three of Wake Forest’s four games this season have blown past the closing total, and on the whole they’ve exceeded the over/under by nearly 10 points per game. Florida State overs against FBS opponents would be 3-0 if LSU had made their extra point at the end of their season opening matchup in the Big Easy. Suffice to say, these teams can score in bunches. Keep an eye on Hurricane Ian’s impact before placing this bet, but as of publication, it should be clear skies and low wind for the Demon Deacons and Noles on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee. 

#4 Michigan-11 @ Iowa (42)

12p ET on FOX

From one high-scoring affair to a Big Ten throwback that will conjure the days of “three yards and a cloud of dust.” The narrative about these two teams is simple. Michigan has played one of the worst opening slates in recent memory and when they finally had to face a team with a pulse they were lucky to survive, besting Maryland by seven at the Big House.

Iowa’s story is that they could very well end the season as the first team in college football history with the top-rated defense and the bottom-rated offense. According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings they currently have the top-rated defense and the 102nd rated offense, which is only the case because they’ve drawn games against Nevada and Rutgers in recent weeks. 

Then there’s the Kinnick factor. Iowa’s home stadium has been a house of horrors for top ten teams over the years. Here’s a quick rundown of the seasons they’ve helped ruin while playing at home since 2016:

2021 - #4 Penn State

2019 - #8 Minnesota

2017 - #6 Ohio State

2016 - #3 Michigan

 

Is Iowa’s home field magic balanced out by Michigan’s 42-3 thumping of the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Title Game last season? At least for bookmakers that recent blowout has more weight than the Hawkeyes track record at home under Kirk Ferentz. 

Betting Angle:

An underrated element of Iowa’s style of play is their punting. Tory Taylor has an NFL career ahead of him, and he’s trapping teams inside their own 20 yard lines with regularity this season. When you use a weapon like him effectively, teams are then facing 75, 85, 95-yard fields against Pro Football Focus’ top-rated defense. I see Iowa sticking to this script and holding Michigan under 17 points. Can they generate a non-offensive touchdown to help pull off the upset? I think they can because Iowa has already scored 16 points (2 touchdowns, 2 safeties) from their defense in four games this season. Iowa+340 on the moneyline is the play in Iowa City.