College Football Week 3 Viewers Guide - Betting Picks and Latest News

Headliners

This week's College football preview is ready to go with all of Mike Calabrese's best picks for you to consider single wagers or parlays. Ensure you are using the best betting site for college football when playing these picks and select from the best betting sites in your state for college football

#12 Brigham Young @ #25 Oregon-3.5 (58)

3:30p ET on ESPN

What does Brigham Young have to do to garner a little respect from betting sites? The Cougars are on a 23-4 run straight up dating back to 2020. They possess the kind of quarterback play you need to win big games, a feisty defense that excels in slowing opponent’s passing attacks and a track record of success against the Pac-12 in recent years. Yet here they are, fresh off of a top-ten victory against Baylor, as a short road dog. 

Oregon, meanwhile, unloaded on an FCS school after getting shellacked in the opener against Georgia. Bo Nix elevated his QBR from 61.7 against Georgia to a score of 92.0 against Eastern Washington. But we’ve been here before with Bo Nix. The mercurial passer has looked great against average competition and completely shut down against top defenses. 

Then there’s the mismatch at head coach to consider. This is just Dan Lanning’s third career game as a head coach, while Kalani Sitake is roaming the sidelines in his 80th game. As a road underdog, Sitake is 10-3 ATS (76.9%), making him the second most profitable coach in those situations since 2016. 

Make sure to check on the injury situation surrounding BYU’s wide receivers. Last week the Cougars were without Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney, their top two perimeter threats. If they’re both a go this week, this game could become a BYU runaway. 

Betting Angle:

Brigham Young is the better team and they’ve proven it on the field already this fall. The question is whether or not they’re healthy at the wide receiver position. If they are, Hall should be able to pick apart a green Oregon secondary. If Nacua and/or Romney are on the shelf again, we could be in line for a low-scoring affair.

#22 Penn State-3 @ Auburn (48)

3:30p ET on CBS

The youth movement in Happy Valley is paying dividends already. Nick Singleton has been a revelation for a Penn State program that hasn’t been able to run the football in years. His 10-carry, 179 yard-outburst on Saturday is exactly what the NIttany Lions needed to be taken seriously in the Big Ten East race. Even backup quarterback Drew Allar looked great in mop-up duty. The future is bright on that side of the ball for Penn State.

But how about the present? Auburn is listed a short home dog on the “Plains.” Historically, they’ve been great in these spots, covering 16 of 24 contests since 2003 with ten outright upsets. Here in 2022, there are still major questions about this Tiger offense. Auburn trailed San Jose State at home last week at halftime, before their ground attack salted away the game late. The sledding won’t be so easy on Saturday. 

Penn State is allowing just 80 yards per game on the ground and they have a highly disruptive secondary headlined by Joey Porter Jr. Given the fact that T.J. Finley has already thrown three interceptions against the likes of Mercer and SJSU, I have little confidence that Auburn can string together long drives at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

James Franklin’s quarterback, Sean Clifford, has been boom or bust in recent years, but the embattled quarterback is currently playing some of his best football. Seven touchdowns, against one turnover through two games is the recipe Penn State fans are looking for him to replicate in this non-conference showdown. At least in this head-to-head, Penn State has the better quarterback option by a country mile.  

Betting Angle:

Homefield plays a huge factor in this game. If the two teams were to play in Happy Valley, I would project this game as Penn State-7.5. That being said, I’m not sure a raucous home crowd can help bolster an anemic Auburn passing attack. If Penn State can set the pace and jump out to an early lead, they’re pass defense should eat Finley and the Tigers alive.

#13 Miami (FL) @ #24 Texas A&M-5.5 (44.5)

9p ET on ESPN

Texas A&M is licking its wounds after falling as a massive favorite on Saturday to Appalachian State. Beyond the outcome itself, the Aggies looked listless on offense. Haynes King didn’t complete a single pass of 20 yards or more and A&M mustered just 83 yards on the ground. The result was that they were crushed in the time of possession battle by a staggering 41:29 to 18:31. 

The Hurricanes come into town with a similar gameplan and the running game to humble the Aggies in back-to-back weeks. This is the nation’s top ranked running game in terms of success rate. Henry Parrish Jr has led the way on the ground for the Canes and it’s believe Miami will be getting Jaylan Knighton fully back into the swing of things after a soft tissue injury in fall camp. App State just ran for 181 yards on A&M, so the blueprint is sitting right there for Miami.

On the other side of the ball, the Canes have not allowed anyone to run the ball against them through two games. Even Southern Miss, whose entire identity is tied to the ground game, came away with just 24 yards rushing. If A&M has to once again rely on Haynes King to bail them out, that could be bad news for Jimbo Fisher and the 12th Man down in College Station. The Canes rank 20th in “havoc” a metric that measures tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles, passes defensed and interceptions. 

The key player in this game will likely be Ainias Smith for Texas A&M. The speedster has played three games with Haynes King as the starting quarterback. In two wins he’s averaged seven catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns. In their lone loss, last week to App State, he was held to four receptions for 21 yards. 

Betting Angle:

Jimbo Fisher is one of the highest-paid coaches in all of sports, taking home $9 million per season in College Station. As a home favorite, he’s no sure-thing, as we saw last week against App State. In fact, during his career, he’s only covered 56% of his games as a home favorite. That’s not enough to scare me away from the Hurricanes who can run and stop the run with the best of them. Canes+5.5 is the play at Kyle Field. 

Fresno State @ #7 USC-12 (74)

10:30p ET on ESPN

Get ready for an offensive show in Tinseltown on Saturday Night. USC is averaging 53.5 points per game behind other-worldly quarterback play. Caleb Williams, an Oklahoma transfer, is second nationally in QBR. His supporting cast has been equally impressive and the Trojans were even able to get the running game humming on the road last week against Stanford. 

Their offensive line, which was much maligned in the offseason, has allowed the seventh-lowest havoc rating, which means that teams are barely touching their quarterback and failing to get in the way of his passes down field. Simply put, this is a well-oiled machine chock full of playmakers. 

But for all of their talent on offense, their defense may be a paper tiger. Eight turnovers have painted a rosy picture, but the stats don’t lie when it comes to the USC defense. Despite playing two teams unlikely to go bowling (Rice, Stanford), USC checks in at 77th in defensive success rate and a 108th in running explosiveness allowed. 

What does that mean in this game? Well it means points and a lot of them. Fresno State is one of the very best Group of Five offenses with All-MWC performancers at QB, RB and WR. Jake Haener, who orchestrated an upset of UCLA last season in Pasadena, continues to play at a high level. His receiving corps is deep and talented. They even added a Swiss Army Knife of a player in Nikko Remigio from the transfer portal. The slot receiver is second nationally in all-purpose yards per game. Much like USC, Fresno has been gashed by big plays thus far in 2022. That means we could be in store for a track meet under the lights at the Coliseum. 

Betting Angle:

An old adage in college football betting is to play the highest total on the board over and the lowest total on the board under. In this case, bettors shouldn’t be scared away from a large total in this game given the superb quarterback play and leaky defenses involved. I would play this game all the way up to 77.5 points.

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Under-The-Radar

Toledo @ #3 Ohio State-32 (62)

7 ET on FOX

The Ohio State Buckeyes have not lost to an in-state opponent since 1921, when they fell by a score of 7-6 to Oberlin College. The Oberlin Yeomen are a footnote in college football history, having lost 40+ games in a row twice during the 1990s. Ohio State, on the other hand, has become a national powerhouse, routinely drilling their in-state competition. How bad has it gotten? In the Buckeyes’ last six games against opponents from the state of Ohio they have won by an average score of 62-8. 

Toledo enters as one of the nation’s best Group of Five programs and the current favorite to win the MAC. Defensively, they rank sixth in success rate, second in limiting explosive plays and 25th in tackles for loss. Offensively, the Rockets have a quality dual-threat quarterback in Dequan Finn and a strong running game that features four running backs. 

There’s no other way to say it, Ohio State has looked rusty through its first two games. Slow starts against Notre Dame and Arkansas State allowed both underdogs to cover and now they’re facing a Toledo team that is playing with confidence. Unless Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s return reenergizes Ohio State in a big way, this point spread feels inflating by four to five points. 

Betting Angle:

Jason Candle, Toledo’s head coach, is ready for this opportunity. Last fall, on the road against #8 Notre Dame, his Rockets nearly pulled off the upset, falling by just three points to the 16.5-point favorite. If Toledo can score 24 points, they should be able to cover this number without breaking much of a sweat. They’ve done so in eight straight games, let’s make it nine in Columbus on Saturday. 

Troy @ Appalachian State-12.5 (52)

3:30p ET on ESPN+

Appalachian State just knocked of Texas A&M on the road last Saturday at Kyle Field. The win was the school’s second over a top-ten program. As a result, ESPN’s College Gameday has made plans to telecast live from Boone, North Carolina. The spotlight couldn’t be bigger for App State and the entire country has been patting them on the back in the press. As Alabama’s Nick Saban likes to say, that’s rat poison for a team. Translation, this could be an emotional letdown spot for the Mountaineers.

Troy, now 1-1 on the season, has a veteran defense capable of slowing App State down altogether. Shiel Wood joined the coaching staff this offseason after a highly-successful stint as Army defensive coordinator. His defense at West Point finished 16th in total defense and 39th against the pass. Jon Sumrall, Troy’s head coach, was hired away from the University of Kentucky after doing a masterful job coaching up the Wildcats’ defense. Suffice to say, they have a great defensive braintrust and are primed to stymie a run-centric Mountaineer attack on Saturday. 

Betting Angle:

If you’re feeling extra bold, Troy on the moneyline can be found out in the market at 4:1 or better. I’ll be playing them both against the spread, catching 12.5, and on the moneyline to win outright. Troy showed me enough in their opener, essentially shutting down an SEC passing attack, to believe they can win a low-scoring affair against their Sun Belt conference opponent.

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