College Basketball National Championship Odds: The Curse Of #1 Looms Before Selection Sunday

Updated: 9 Sport

Devin Anthony Ellington surveys the college basketball landscape, while targeting Cinderellas and storylines to watch in the coming weeks.

College Basketball National Championship Odds: The Curse Of #1 Looms Before Selection Sunday
Devin Ellington Basketball Editor

Devin Anthony Ellington is OLBGs expert Basketball writer. He has previously contributed to numerous quality publications including ESPN.

  • Kansas (+1000) reasserts its dominance in the Big 12, downs Baylor.
  • NC State (+15000) may have popped UNC's bubble. The Tar Heels started the year as #1 in the AP poll.
  • Northwestern (+12000) continues to dominate the Big Ten, collecting wins against Indiana and Iowa. NW has its most B10 wins since 1931.

The betting landscape has hardly changed at the top in recent weeks. Houston (+650) has maintained its top position and showcased its dominance once again against Memphis, who was the biggest remaining threat to beat the Coogs down the stretch. Per, Houston is ranked as the number three team in college basketball for adjusted offensive efficiency and are seventh for adjusted defensive efficiency, offering a true balanced attack with two top ten rankings for efficiency. 

College Basketball National Championship 2023 Betting

Team Moneyline Probability
Houston Cougars +700 12.5%
Alabama Crimson Tide +800 11.11%
Purdue Boilermakers +1000 9.09%
Kansas Jayhawks +1000 9.09%
Arizona Wildcats
+1200 7.69%
UCLA Bruins +1200 7.69%
Baylor Bears
+1400 6.67%
UConn Huskies +1800 5.26%
Texas Longhorns +2000 4.76%
Tennessee Volunteers +2300 4.17%
Virginia Cavaliers +2500 3.85%
Creighton Bluejays +2500 3.85%
Gonzaga Bulldogs +2500 3.85%
Indiana Hoosiers +3000 3.23%
St. Mary's (CA) Gaels +3000 3.23%
TCU Horned Frogs +3000 3.23%
Marquette Golden Eagles
+3500 2.78%
Xavier Musketeers +4000 2.44%
Iowa State Cyclones +4000 2.44%
Kansas State Wildcats +4000 2.44%
Arkansas Razorbacks +5000 1.96%
Duke Blue Devils +5000 1.96%
North Carolina Tar Heels +5000
Kentucky Wildcats +5000 1.96%
Miami (FL) Hurricanes +5000 1.96%
Illinois Fighting Illini
+6000 1.64%
Auburn Tigers +8000 1.23%
Iowa Hawkeyes +8000 1.23%
Maryland Terrapins +8000 1.23%
San Diego State Aztecs +8000 1.23%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +10000 .99%
Michigan State Spartans +10000 .99%
Providence Friars +10000 .99%
Missouri Tigers +10000 .99%
Memphis Tigers +10000 .99%
Mississippi State Bulldogs +10000 .99%
Northwestern Wildcats +12000 0.83%
Texas A&M Aggies
+15000 0.66%
Florida Atlantic Owls +25000 0.4%
Charleston Cougars +40000 0.25%
North Texas Mean Green +50000 0.2%

Some other contenders that are inching closer to being a co-favorite with Houston include the likes of Kansas (+1000), who owns the most Quadrant 1 wins in all of college basketball with 13 (no other team has 10), Purdue (+1000) who was able to bounce back by throttling Ohio State after losing to unranked NW, and Alabama (+850) who took a loss against the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville but bounced back on Saturday. All three of these teams have a legit chance of winning it all but it would not be shocking to see all three of these programs make the Elite Eight. 

In terms of the strongest conference, the Big 12 has four schools in the top five for Q1 wins this season and as mentioned above, Kansas takes the cake on these wins. The Big 12, SEC, and Big Ten all share the lead for number of teams projected to be in the tourney. The three conferences are likely to send eight schools each to the dance. In regards to the Top-50 in NET rankings, the Big Ten and Big 12 conferences share the top spot with eight schools within the Top-50 of NET rankings, this is something to consider when constructing brackets in less than a month.

UNC-Asheville clinched the Big South regular season title and Vermont clinched a share of the America East, this signals that we are that much closer to Selection Sunday.

Devin Anthony Ellington - College Basketball Expert -

With Selection Sunday less than a month away and conference tournaments kicking off within the next week and a half, we have had some teams who hae already clinched their regular season titles. With that being said, there are some conferences this week that can be clinched, those conferences include: The Summit League, the MEAC, which has Norfolk State and Howard at the top, the OVC which has Morehead State nursing a two-game cushion between themselves and UT-Martin and SE Missouri State. Lastly, Merrimack as well as Stonehill and Fairleigh Dickenson are all gunning for first in the Northeastern Conference. There are a ton of conferences that will go down to the last game of the season, setting up an intense March.

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