Arlington Million Betting Guide: Strategies, Statistics & Picks

2024 Arlington Million Preview

Following the closure of the Arlington racetrack, the Arlington Million along with both the Beverly D. Stakes and Secretariat Stakes was originally moved to the Churchill Downs racetrack in 2022 but has once again been moved, this time to the Colonial Downs Racetrack. This Grade I race is open to horses aged three or older and is run on the turf over a distance of one mile and two furlongs and as the name suggests, carried a $1m purse.

There have been three winners of this race who have lost the race in the stewards' room, Storming Home (2003 demoted to 4th), Powerscourt (2004 demoted to 4th), and The Apache (2013 demoted to 2nd).

Arlington Million Picks

We also have a dedicated Colonial Downs Betting Picks page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG handicappers are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. Ahead of the 2024 Arlington Million why not head over to the racing predictions for picks on other races today?

Arlington Million Content

• Arlington Million Past Winners
• Arlington Million Trainer Statistics
• Arlington Million Jockey Statistics
• 2024 Arlington Million Trends
• Arlington Million Trend Analysis
• Other Graded races at Colonial Downs Racetrack

Quickest Run Arlington Million Renewals

The runner that holds the record over the past 10 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2021 renewal when Two Emmys from Hugh Robertson under the guidance of James Graham, won in a time of 2:03.34, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Santin, trained by Brendan P Walsh and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione set the quickest time of 1:46.88 in the 2022 renewal. Below are the top five quickest-run Arlington Million over the last 10 renewals.

• 2022 - Santin (1:46.88)
• 2023 - Set Piece (1:58.19)
• 2019 - Bricks And Mortar (1:59.44)
• 2013 - Real Solution (2:00.99)
• 2014 - Hardest Core (2:01.51)

Arlington Million Past Winners

Here are the Arlington Million past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the winning time, and the horse which won along with the cloth number, age, sex, the weight of the horse & which starting gate the horse came from. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Arlington Million as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the moneyline odds the horse was sent off.

Year	Horse (Info)	Info
2023 1:58.19	(3) Set Piece (GB) 7/G 123lbs 57/10 (3 of 11)	Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA)
2022 1:46.88	(6) Santin (USA) 4/C 125lbs 49/20 (5 of 8)	Tyler Gaffalione Brendan P Walsh (USA)
2021 2:03.34	(4) Two Emmys (USA) 5/G 126lbs 27/1 (4 of 8)	James Graham Hugh Robertson (USA)
2019 1:59.44	(3) Bricks And Mortar (USA) 5/H 126lbs 1/2F (3 of 9)	Irad Ortiz Jr Chad C Brown (USA)
2018 2:02.29	(10) Robert Bruce (CHI) 4/C 122lbs 13/5 (8 of 9)	Irad Ortiz Jr Chad C Brown (USA)
2017 2:02.39	(10) Beach Patrol (USA) 4/C 126lbs 49/10 (9 of 12)	Joel Rosario Chad C Brown (USA)
2016 2:01.87	(9) Mondialiste (IRE) 6/H 126lbs 22/5 (7 of 11)	Daniel Tudhope David O'Meara (GB)
2015 2:02.20	(7) The Pizza Man (USA) 6/G 126lbs 59/10 (7 of 13)	Florent Geroux Roger Brueggemann (USA)
2014 2:01.51	(1) Hardest Core (USA) 4/G 126lbs 115/10 (1 of 7)	Eriluis Vaz Edward Graham (USA)
2013 2:00.99	(1) Real Solution (USA) 4/C 126lbs 84/10 (1 of 13)	Alan Garcia Chad C Brown (USA)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Arlington Million have been based:

• USA: 9 winners with an additional 12 placings from 66 runners
• GB: 1 winner with an additional 2 placings from 14 runners
• IRE: 0 winners with an additional 4 placings from 8 runners
• CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 7 runners
• FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
• SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 1 runner
• GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner

Arlington Million Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Arlington Million over the last 10 renewals is Chad C Brown who has won the race 4 times. Those 4 winners came from Real Solution (2013), Beach Patrol (2017), Robert Bruce (2018) & Bricks And Mortar (2019).

Here are some of the most active Arlington Million trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals.

Trainer	Starts	1st	2nd	3rd	LSP
Chad C Brown	16	4	3	3	+4.40
Roger Brueggemann	4	1	0	0	+2.90
Brendan P Walsh	3	1	1	0	+0.45
Brad H Cox	2	1	0	0	+4.70
Hugh Robertson	1	1	0	0	+27.00
Edward Graham	1	1	0	0	+11.50
David O'Meara	1	1	0	0	+4.40
Michael J Maker	8	0	0	1	-8.00
A P O'Brien	7	0	2	2	-7.00
Andrew Balding	3	0	0	2	-3.00

Arlington Million Jockey Statistics

There are two leading jockeys in the Arlington Million over the last 10 renewals with both Florent Geroux & Irad Ortiz Jr who have both won the race 2 times. Florent Geroux's winners have been The Pizza Man (2015) & Set Piece (2023). Irad Ortiz Jr winners have been with Robert Bruce (2018) & Bricks And Mortar (2019).

Here are some of the most active Arlington Million jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals.

Jockey	Starts	1st	2nd	3rd	LSP
Florent Geroux	6	2	0	0	+7.60
Irad Ortiz Jr	4	2	0	0	+1.10
Joel Rosario	3	1	1	0	+2.90
James Graham	2	1	0	0	+26.00
Daniel Tudhope	2	1	0	0	+3.40
Tyler Gaffalione	2	1	1	0	+1.45
Eriluis Vaz	1	1	0	0	+11.50
Alan Garcia	1	1	0	0	+8.40
Ryan Moore	6	0	0	1	-6.00
William Buick	4	0	0	0	-4.00

2024 Arlington Million Trends

Favorites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 13, 2, (2, 8), 7, 3, PU, 1, 2, 4, 3

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

• 10 / 10 (59%) - Within the first 6 of market
• 10 / 10 (61%) - Carried 118 - 125lbs (Last Win)
• 10 / 10 (69%) - Made 2 - 4 starts (Season)
• 10 / 10 (73%) - A RPR no less than 92 (Last 5)
• 10 / 10 (74%) - Carried 117 - 128lbs (Debut)
• 10 / 10 (76%) - No bigger than 10/1 (LTO)
• 10 / 10 (77%) - Break of 21 - 99 days (Last Place)
• 10 / 10 (77%) - No bigger than 27/1
• 10 / 10 (79%) - Made 3 - 7 starts (1 Year)
• 10 / 10 (79%) - Not in ARG/CAN/COL/DEU/IRL/ZAF (Debut)
• 10 / 10 (80%) - Placed within last 2 starts
• 10 / 10 (82%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Colonial Downs racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Arlington Million. Are you already a member? If not, then why not?! With over $9,000 given away each month in the picks contest, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then why share your thoughts on the Arlington Million by adding a pick on the race here?

Arlington Million Trend Analysis

How competitive is the Arlington Million market?

When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2021 when the race had an over-round of 121%. The race in 2023 was a race that was most in the bookie's favor with an over-round of 123%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Arlington Million, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out $100 for every $122 which is bet.

Post Positions of the Arlington Million Winners, Places & Shows

Here are the most recent winning draws along with those who placed and showed:

Year	Win	Place	Show
2023	3	11	9
2022	6	4	2
2021	4	3	2
2019	3	2	10
2018	10	3	6

Best Course for an Arlington Million Prep Run?

The course which has produced the most winners of the Arlington Million is Belmont Park, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at Belmont Park last time out.

Sex of Horse winners of the Arlington Million

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 100 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 1 runner.

Top Performing Stallions in the Arlington Million

Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Arlington Million, that stallion English Channel has produced 2 winners (2021,2015).

Biggest Priced Winners of the Arlington Million & Performance of Favorites

Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Two Emmys in 2021, winning for Hugh Robertson at odds of 27/1 under the guidance of James Graham. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there has been a total of 1 winning favorite in the race. Before placing your wager on the 2024 Arlington Million head over to see which other runners today are being wagered on by the best racing handicappers today. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

Other Graded races at Colonial Downs Racetrack

Here are some other notable races at the Colonial Downs racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in August

• Beverly D. Stakes
• Secretariat Stakes

Arlington Million FAQs

Where is the Arlington Million run?

The Arlington Million is run that the Colonial Downs racetrack each year, you can get Colonial Downs racing predictions all season long as well as for Arlington Million.

When is the Arlington Million?

The Arlington Million takes place around August of each year at Colonial Downs.

Who won the Arlington Million?

The 2023 renewal of the Arlington Million was won by the Brad H Cox trained Set Piece which was ridden by Florent Geroux in a time of 1:58.19, owned by Juddmonte it was sent off at an SP of 57/10. You can view all the recent winners in the Arlington Million Past Winners section of the blog.

Who will win the Arlington Million?

On the day of the race, use the trends in this blog and then compare them to the OLBG racing handicappers' predictions for the Arlington Million, you can do this on the Colonial Downs Picks page which not only will have picks for this race but also picks for Colonial Downs all throughout the season. You may also be interested in the Horse Racing Picks page where you can get daily horse racing predictions from all of the US courses.

Who is the top trainer in the Arlington Million?

With a total of four winners over the last ten renewals, it is Chad C Brown who holds the claim as the leading trainer in the Arlington Million. To see which other trainers have a good record in the race, head over to the Arlington Million Trainer Statistics section of the blog.

Who is the top jockey in the Arlington Million?

We have joint leading jockeys in the Arlington Million over the last ten renewals, both with two wins are Florent Geroux & Irad Ortiz Jr. To see which other jockeys have a good record in the race, head over to the Arlington Million Jockey Statistics section of the blog.

Do we have trends for the 2024 renewal of the Arlington Million?

The simple answer is Yes! We have a total of twelve trends for the Arlington Million which can be found under the Arlington Million Trends section.