Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Iraq now 3/1 favourite to follow Brazil in banning X from the country
- Elon Musk's X was fined for returning to Brazil despite ban imposed
- Asia leads the odds to be the next continent to see an X ban
Iraq now 3/1 favourite to follow Brazil in banning X from the country
Betting markets are now being offered on which country will be next to ban social media platform X and follow in the footsteps of Brazil in not allowing the platform in their country.
Betting sites put Iraq as the favourites to be the next country to ban X with the latest odds putting them at 3/1 to stop it being used there.
X, formerly known as Twitter, was banned in Brazil due to failure to meet a deadline to name a new legal representative in the country.
Musk has spoken about the ban in Brazil saying, "Free speech is the bedrock of democracy and an unelected pseudo-judge in Brazil is destroying it for political purposes".
The ban of the platform has been seen as a negative for both free speech and journalism in the country and it looks like there are no signs of it being overturned.
| Next place to ban X/Twitter | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Syria | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Equatorial Guinea | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Uzbekistan | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Nigeria | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Yemen | 6/1 | 14.3% |
What the expert says...
Elon Musk's X was fined for returning to Brazil despite ban imposed
Brazil fined Elon Musk's companies earlier this week after users in the country were able to access X on Wednesday despite the platform being banned.
Thursday saw a Brazilian court fine Musk £695,000 for breaching that ban
X's official global affairs account on the platform posted an update around the situation saying that the restoration to Brazil was “inadvertent and temporary” due to switching network providers.
When X was shut down in Brazil, our infrastructure to provide service to Latin America was no longer accessible to our team. To continue providing optimal service to our users, we changed network providers. This change resulted in an inadvertent and temporary service restoration…
— Global Government Affairs (@GlobalAffairs) September 19, 2024
Asia leads the odds to be the next continent to see an X ban
Further specials group the next place to ban X in continents rather than countries with Asia odds-on to see a ban happen.
Asia has a 60% chance of seeing a ban happen in a country or place in the continent of the X platform according to those latest odds.
Twitter/X is currently blocked in 10 countries across the world with Brazil, China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Tanzania, Turkmenistan and Venezuela all having it blocked.
| Continent of next place to ban X/Twitter | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Africa | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| North America | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| South America | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Europe | 12/1 | 7.7% |
