I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Toby and Chloe Are Clearly The Strongest Favourites of the Season now with 60% Chance of Winning
- No One Has Previously Stole the Money at the End of the Show. 10/1 Says They Will in 2021
- Each of the Winning Couple Expected to make £1m in After Show Deals Anyway
9% Chance someone will steal the love money
Many forget amid the fun, drama and betting on Love Island that there is £50,000 up for grabs for the winning couple. Or at least guaranteed for one with the keep option available.
The winning couple are presented with 2 envelopes, one containing £50k, the other with nothing in.
The contestant with the £50k then has the chance to keep the money and prove they were playing a game, or share and show the love is for real.
In the history of Love Island, since it returned to our screens in 2015, no one has kept the money.
Whether that is to prove their love is real and they are not a cheat or not is up for debate, as 4 of the last 6 couples to emerge from the Villa have split within the year, and 2 couples lasted less than 2 months!
In 2021, the bookmakers think there is only a 9% chance that one contestant will steal.
The Fate of the Money and Love From the Island
| Year | Winning Couple | Fate of the Money | Fate of Love |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Jessica & Max | Shared | 6 Weeks |
| 2016 | Cara & Nathan | Shared | Married in 2020 |
| 2017 | Amber & Cem | Shared | 18 Weeks |
| 2018 | Dani & Jack | Shared | 52 Weeks |
| 2019 | Amber & Greg | Shared | 4 Weeks |
| 2020 | Paige & Finlay | Shared | Still going....... |
| 2021 | ????? | ???? | ????? |
Toby & Chloe looking like the Pair Who Will Have to Make That Decision
Toby and Chloe are clear bookmakers favourites and are no being given the biggest probability of winning the show by bookmakers that any could have had. Betting sites say they now have a 60% chance of taking the two envelopes, one containing £50,000
The big question is 'Will one of the other decide to 'Steal' and keep the £50,000 rather than share it with their mate'?
Despite no one stealing before the bookmakers are offering odds and quite generously consider the chance of the money being stolen quite low at 9%
This means you can bet at odds of 10/1 that one contestant will.
It's Not Worth Stealing
With many former Love Island Contestants going on to make more than £1m in after-show deals, interviews and forge careers off the back of their new found reality fame, the £50,000 may pale into insignificance anyway.
But the opportunity to become the first-ever contestant since Love island returned to do so, remains there. It would be a story, it would create more opportunities for both parties. It is an interesting concept, love aside.
The fans have come to love both Chloe and Toby, the latter coming across as a really nice guy right in time for the final eliminations.
If you won, what would you do?
Current Odds for Winning Couple
| Couple | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Chloe & Toby | 1.73 | 57.80% |
| Millie & Liam | 2.20 | 45.45% |
| Faye & Teddy | 7.00 | 14.29% |
| Liberty & Jake | 23 | 4.35% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 20/8/2021
