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- OLBG look at the potential candidates for the Welsh First Minister position after Mark Drakeford's resignation on Wednesday
- Drakeford will officially step down from his role in March with a leadership contest set to find the next first minister
- Labour still clear favourites to win the next General Election
OLBG look at the potential candidates for the Welsh First Minister position after Mark Drakeford's resignation on Wednesday
Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford announced his resignation on Wednesday afternoon from the role he has been in since 2018 in a surprise announcement.
Drakeford had been expected to stand down at some point in 2024 but his announcement wasn't due until the New Year and this now may cause shockwaves in Welsh politics.
OLBG have taken a closer look at the contenders and DragonBet are now offering full odds on who may take over the role next.
Economy Minister Vaughan Gething and Education Minister Jeremy Miles are expected to be the frontrunners to take over from Drakeford and we'll have a broader view in the coming weeks.
| Next Welsh First Minister | Odds* | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Vaughan Gething | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Jeremy Miles | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Eluned Morgan | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Rebecca Evans | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Hannah Blythyn | 8/1 | 11.1% |
What the expert says...
Drakeford will officially step down from his role in March with a leadership contest set to find the next first minister
Despite announcing his resignation on Wednesday, Mark Drakeford will stay in his role as Welsh First Minister until March when a new first minister is picked.
Drakeford said in a press conference on Wednesday, "When I stood for the leadership I said that, if elected, I would serve for five years. Exactly five years have passed since I was confirmed as first minister in 2018".
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer have both commented on Drakeford's role in Welsh politics over the years with the latter hailing him as a "true titan".
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Labour still clear favourites to win the next General Election
Labour remain the favourites to win the next General Election with the odds now the shortest they've been yet with an 88% chance that the party gains the most seats.
There's no concrete date for the General Election to take place with Rishi Sunak having until January 2025 to call one according to law.
The Tories have a 16% chance of winning the most seats at the election with their odds out to 5/1 to win now, followed by the Lib Dems and Reform UK in the market.
| Next UK General Election - Most Seats | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 1/8 | 88.9% |
| Conservatives | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Reform UK | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Green Party | 500/1 | 0.2% |
Political Betting Author Information
Political Betting Expert
Jake Ashton
Senior News Editor
