I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Evens Bet Keir Starmer is replaced before 2024 according to bookmakers odds
- Next General Election still expected in 2024, despite betting support for an earlier 2023 date
- Just a 28% chance based on betting odds that Keir Starmer could become the next Prime Minister
Following the Labour Party conference coming to a close today in Brighton, there will no doubt be chatter about Keir Starmer, the prospect of Labour gaining more public confidence with a view to the next general election expectations and of course, if Starmer will still be in charge at the time.
Taking a look at the betting odds, there might be bad news for the current Labour Leader as the betting odds suggest he will be replaced before 2024, with the most popular bet for the date of the next general election being 2024, meaning he may not be in charge when it goes to the vote.
Keir Starmer Exit Date Betting
| Date | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 or Earlier | Evens | 50% |
| 2024 | 7/4 | 36% |
| 2025 or Later | 7/2 | 22% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 28/9/2021
Next General Election Date
Next Prime Minister Betting Odds
The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday 2 May 2024, in line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.
To that end, 2024 remains the favourite choice in the betting markets, although there is some support for an earlier election being called although the odds suggest that a snap election in 2022 is highly unlikely and only a 7% chance.
| Year of General Election | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 or later | 4/6 | 60% |
| 2023 | 7/4 | 36% |
| 2022 | 14/1 | 7% |
| 2021 | 80/1 | 1% |
If we combine the Evens odds of Starmer leaving in 2023 and the next election being in 2024 as a 6/4 chance, he has only 1% chance of being the next Prime minister after Boris Johnson in 2023.
