Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Simon Harris is the clear favourite at 1/14 to become the next permanent leader of Fine Gael
- Leo Varadkar resigned from as taoiseach and Fine Gael leader on Wednesday
- 2024 now 8/11 favourite to see next Irish General Election
Simon Harris is the clear favourite at 1/14 to become the next permanent leader of Fine Gael
Bookies are now offering odds on the next permanent leader of Fine Gael after Leo Varadkar resigned from the role on Wednesday and there's a clear favourite in the betting market.
Simon Harris is as short as 1/14 to get the role next with the current Irish Minister for Further and Higher Education looking like being the main pick for the role according to the odds.
Harris this morning has secured sufficient support from the Fine Gael parliamentary party to secure a nomination to be leader of the party in an election to replace the departiing Varadkar next.
Paddy Power's latest betting market suggests a heavy chance of Harris winning any potential leadership election, with the latest odds giving an implied probability of 93% that he does so.
Paschal Donohoe looks to be the main contender to Harris according to the betting market with the latest betting odds putting him as the 6/1 second favourite.
| Next Permanent Leader of Fine Gael | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Simon Harris | 1/14 | 93.3% |
| Paschal Donohoe | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Heather Humphreys | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Jennifer Caroll MacNeill | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Josepha Madigan | 50/1 | 2.0% |
What the expert says...
Leo Varadkar resigned from as taoiseach and Fine Gael leader on Wednesday
Leo Varadkar stepped down as taoiseach and Fine Gael leader on Wednesday morning stating that his reasons for leaving are "both personal and political".
In an emotional speech, Varadkar said that he didn't feel that he was the best person for the job anymore confirming he will step down as taoiseach as soon as the new leader is elected.
Sinn Féin's Matt Carthy has instantly said that now there should be a change in government saying that his party should give the country a "fresh direction" going forward.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
2024 now 8/11 favourite to see next Irish General Election
It's set to be a busy time now in Irish politics with elections set to take place in the next 12 months across a variety of different political outcomes.
European elections with take place this June as well as local elections across Ireland with Fine Gael needed to have a good performance across the local parties.
There will also be a General Election in Ireland at some point before March next year with bookies saying there's an 8/11 chance that we see if take place in 2024.
| When will the next Irish General Election be? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| 2025 | 10/11 | 52.4% |
