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- Even money (1/1) that a serving Labour MP joins Reform UK during this Parliament.
- 8/11 odds suggest bookmakers lean towards “No.”
- Suella Braverman 4/1 favourite to be the next MP to join Reform UK.
Defection Odds Tighten
As Reform UK continues to rise in prominence following Nigel Farage’s return to frontline politics, UK Betting Sites have priced up the chances of a Labour MP joining the party during the current Parliament.
The market is finely balanced, with Yes at evens and No at 8/11, suggesting bookies believe it’s almost a 50-50 shot whether such a move happens before the next General Election.
Ladbrokes latest odds look at a variety of specials around UK politics, with the current climate looking like the most open it has been in years.
The latest odds give just a 7.9% implied probability difference between the outcome with bookmakers even unable to split this market.
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Will a Serving Labour MP Join Reform UK?
| Will a Serving Labour MP Join Reform UK? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| Yes | 1/1 | 50.0% |
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
Which MPs Could Defect?
Ladbrokes are also offering a market on the next serving MP to join Reform UK, with Suella Braverman topping the betting at 4/1.
This market looks at different politicians across all parties and wether they will leave their current part for Reform UK.
The former Home Secretary has been openly critical of her party’s direction, making her a realistic candidate in the eyes of punters.
Esther McVey (5/1) and Andrew Rosindell (6/1) follow closely, while Katie Lam and Robert Jenrick (both 8/1) are priced as outsiders. Veteran Conservative David Davis is a longer shot at 12/1.
| Next MP to defect to Reform UK | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Suella Braverman | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Esther McVey | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Andrew Rosindell | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Katie Lam | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Robert Jenrick | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| David Davis | 12/1 | 7.7% |
What It Means
The Labour defection market is notable because defections to Reform UK are more commonly associated with disaffected Conservatives.
A Labour switch would represent a dramatic shift in the UK political landscape and offer Reform further legitimacy in Westminster.
Question marks would surely surround Keir Starmer as Prime Minister if Labour MP's start to defect.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on Political Markets
Political betting is one of the fastest-growing areas of the industry, with specials like Next MP to defect to Reform UK and Next General Election most seats attracting plenty of interest.
Check out our guide to the best political betting sites to compare prices, promotions, and the latest free bets from UK betting sites.
