Greta Thunberg and Alexei Navalny Drift in Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds

Greta Thunberg and Alexei Navalny Drift in Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds
Steve Madgwick
Steve Madgwick Editor-In-Chief

Editor-In-Chief with 20 years experience covering the betting angles to breaking news stories. Daily slots player, Portsmouth fan and League Snooker Player

  • Nobel Peace Prize Winner is Announced on Friday 8th October
  • World Health Organization, COVAX, GAVI or CEPI Less than 3/1 favourites at betting sites
  • Greta Thurburg is 15/2 with bookies to be honoured with the Peace Prize from her own country.
  • Alex Navalny would be the 4th imprisoned winner of the peace prize and is 18/1 with bookmakers
Greta Thunberg was second favourite when failing to win the prize in 2020. This year she is 2nd favourite again but a bigger prize at 15/2 - But the Nobel Peace Prize has a habit of going to a shock winner.
Steve Madgwick - Senior Editor - OLBG.com

Greta Thunberg was a 3/1 shot to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020, but is an even bigger prize to win this year coming up against The World Health Organisation, COVAX, GAVI or CEPI

Earlier this year punters would have been offered a shorter prize, but in recent weeks, her price has gotten bigger, along with Alexei Navalny, whilst the WHO and associated bodies as a group have become the firmer favourites with bookmakers

This year betting sites have her priced at 15/2 odds in the Nobel Peace Prize Winner Betting.

Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds


Odds Probability
World Health Organization, COVAX, GAVI or CEPI 3.8 26%
Greta Thunberg 8.6 12%
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 16.0 6%
Reporters Without Borders 16.5 6%
Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya 18.0 6%
Alexei Navalny 19.0 5%
Nathan Law Kwun-chung 20.0 5%
Angela Merkel 21.0 5%
Jacinda Ardern 21.0 5%
Ilham Tohti 23.0 4%
Palestinian Centre for Human Rights 23.0 4%
Bill Gates 27.0 4%
International Fact Checking Institute 34.0 3%

Shocks are Common

Whilst there is annual betting odds offered on the prize award, it has rarely been awarded to who the bookmakers have offered favouritsm too, and in 2021, in terms of the betting odds, we could again be in for a shock.

There are, after all, nearly 400 nominated bodies for the prize, and the winner, chosen by the Nobel Committee could come from anywhere.

The list is as diverse to have Vladamir Putin, Meghan Markle, Julian Assange and RNLI in the same position in the betting.

Imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize Winners

Alex Navalny's odds of winning the price have drifted with bookmakers but even at 18/1, were he to win, he would become the 4th winner of the Nobel Laureate Peace prize to do so whilst imprisoned.
Steve Madgwick - Senior Editor - OLBG.com

Alexei Navalny is the leader of the Russia of the Future party and the founder of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and is currently imprisoned in Moscow on various charges.

As recently as August he was challenging The WHO in being favourite to win the prize, but has since slipped in the betting to double figures and around 16/1

Although currently incarcerated, if he were to win, he would not be the first to do so behind bars.

There have been three previous prisoners awarded the prize in its history

  • German Journalist Carl von Ossietzky
  • Myanmar Politician Aung San Suu Kyi
  • Liu Xiaobo Chinese renegade.

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