Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Raab's probability of being the next to leave the cabinet double from 4% to 8% with bookmakers
- President of COP26 Alok Sharma still betting sites favourite to go first with 30% likelihood
- 85% chance Raab will survive in post until at least another 2 weeks in bookies, 'remain in post' market
Odds Slashed to Lose Foreign Secretary Post
With calls for the resignation of Dominic Raab following what is being called a 'failure of judgment' by some, bookmakers have reacted by halving the odds from 25/1 to just 12/1 for him to be the next cabinet minister to leave their post.
The halving of the odds also doubles the probability from just 4% to 8%.
Next Cabinet Minister to Leave Betting Odds
| Cabinet Minister | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Alok Sharma | 3/1 | 25% |
| Gavin Williamson | 9/2 | 18.18% |
| Priti Patel | 9/1 | 14.29% |
| Michael Gove | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Lord Frost | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Ben Wallace | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Dominic Raab | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Brandon Lewis | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Rishi Sunak | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Sajid David | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Boris Johnson | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Liz Truss | 25/1 | 3.85% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 19/8/2021
Will Raab Last The Month?
In a betting market as to whether Dominic Raab will last until September 1st, it would seem punters are less confident if a resignation does come, it will come quickly.
It is considered an 85% possibility he remains in office until at least next month, although the coming days could be telling and there could be significant movement should there be further developments in the story.
Dominic Raab to Remain Foreign Secretary until 1st September
| Decision | Odds | Probability** |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1/7 | 87.7% |
| No | 5/1 | 16.67% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround of 4.16% - odds correct at 19/8/2021
