I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Italy has a 26% chance of being the Next EU Leavers according to bookmakers
- 20% of people polled in Italy said they would support a leave decision in 5 years time subject to UK state
- France and Greece are the next favourites at 14% and 11% respectively.
- Malta and Luxembourg are both 50/1 and considered highly unlikely to leave by Betting sites
Italy Clear Favourites to Leave
Betting on the next country to leave the Eu is available for predictions at some bookmakers.
There are currently no timelines associated with the betting, but at the head of the market is Italy at 11/4 to follow the UK out of the EU. Let's take a little look into what this means.
Next Country to Leave the EU Betting
| Country | Betting Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 11/4 | 26.67% |
| Greece | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| France | 9/1 | 11.11% |
| Netherlands | 12/1 | 8.33% |
| Spain | 14/1 | 7.14% |
| Portugal | 16/1 | 6.25% |
| Cyprus | 17/1 | 5.56% |
| Ireland | 25/1 | 4% |
| Denmark | 25/1 | 4% |
| Sweden | 25/1 | 4% |
| Germany | 25/1 | 4% |
| Malta | 50/1 | 2% |
| Luxembourg | 50/1 | 2% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/8/2021
In polls undertaken by Euronews across Italy, Spain, Germany and France, the following questions were asked
- I will be more likely to support my country leaving the EU if the UK and its economy are in a good state in five years, agree or disagree?
- To what extent has being a member of the European Union had a positive or negative effect on your country?
Of the four countries, Italy topped the percentage of responders to the questions with 'Agree or Strongly Agree' to support the country should leave be a choice
More tellingly, Italy responders voted for a Negative Impact of being an EU member in twice the numbers of the other three countries, with 34% giving those answers as opposed to as low as 15% in Spain
Next French President?
Greece and France are next in the betting to leave the EU, with Greece available to bet at 6/1 and France slightly bigger and given a slightly lower probability at 8/1
The French Presidential Elections are coming in 2022 where Emmanuel Macron remains a short-priced favourite with a 54% probability of remaining the French president
Next French President 2022
| Next President | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 8/11 | 57.8% |
| Marine le Pen | 3/1 | 25% |
| Xavier Bertrand | 4/1 | 20% |
| Nicholas Sarcozy | 20/1 | 4.76% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 24/8/2021
Macron was critical in the way the UK Brexit referendum was won and one would imagine he would not be a supporter of a "FREXIT" but there are factions of the French public who would take little edging on to consider turning it's back on the EU in a few years if the UK Brexit shows benefits for it's people.
No Chance for Malta or Luxembourg
Being a little fish and having a big brother looking after you is a comfortable position within the EU and the betting would suggest that both Malta and Luxembourg fit that description with their chances of being the next Country to leave the Eu at a paltry 2%
That translates to a 50/1 chance in betting parlance. To put a little more perspective on it, that 1 in 50 chance, usually only happens around 1 time in 200
Malta and Luxembourg are going nowhere soon and the bookmaker's odds make that abundantly clear.
