I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Raab was 25/1 but an avalanche of bets see the odds crash to less than 3/1 - Just 10% of what they were 2 weeks ago
- Bookmakers also shorten odds on Home Secretary Priti Patel to leave in the same market.
- 95% probability nothing will happen before the end of the month, 20/1 to Leave before September 1st
- Just 4% Chance for Raab In the next Tory leader betting according to bookmakers.
Odds Tumble
Last week saw Dominic Raab's odds of being the next Cabinet Minister to leave their post tumble from 25/1 to 12/1 in the wake of the trouble in Afghanistan and his presence on holiday in Greece.
Since then, calls for his resignation have continued, pressure has increased and bookmakers have reacted in cutting his odds even further to just 10% of what they were and making him the clear favourite to be the next to go, overtaking Alok Sharma and Gavin Williamson.
Next Cabinet Minister to Leave Odds
| Cabinet Minister | Odds Last Week | Odds Today | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domini Raab | 25/1 | 5/2 | 28.57% |
| Alok Sharma | 3/1 | 4/1 | 20% |
| Gavin Williamson | 9/2 | 11/2 | 15.38% |
| Priti Patel | 9/1 | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Lord Frost | 8/1 | 8/1 | 11.11% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 19/8/2021
Whilst other cabinet ministers in the betting have seen their probability decrease and betting odds increase as a result for the confidence in Raab's departure, Priti Patel has also come in for some support in the next to leave betting although there is nothing outstanding that should suggest that shortening for the Home Secretary.
Safe for a Week at Least
As far as bookmakers are concerned, Dominic Raab is safe until the end of August. That has always been the case, but with the end of the month just days away, they have 96% confidence, nothing will happen until Tuesday next week at least.
To put that into perspective, if you were to bet £250 on Dominic Raab to remain in his position until at least September 1st, you would win just £10.
Safe to say he will be safe for another weekend, but best not pop off on holiday again!
Party and Country
In addition to the next cabinet minister to leave betting odds market, Dominic Raab also appears in markets available for betting on the next leader of the Conservative Party and also the Next prime Minister betting.
| Market | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Next Prime Minister | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Next Tory Leader | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Next cabinet Minister to leave | 5/2 | 28.57% |
