Betting on Next Country to Leave the EU: Bookies have Poland as 7/2 Favourites ahead of Italy

Betting on Next Country to Leave the EU: Bookies have Poland as 7/2 Favourites ahead of Italy
Steve Madgwick
Steve Madgwick Editor-In-Chief

I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.

  • Poland Rank as 21% chance of leaving the Eu by 2025, bookies offering odds of 4.60 for Polexit
  • Itexit for Italy is slightly bigger at 4.70 and a similar 21% probability
  • Greece Hungary and France come next with bookmakers betting odds.

There has long been discussion as to whether the European Union is beginning to come apart at the season, and although that may be a long way from the truth, there is constant speculation as to which country might be the next to follow the UK in leaving the Europen Union.

So much so that you can make a prediction with betting sites offering odds on which country will be the next to exit before a certain time, in this case, 2025

Heading the market as favourite to leave the EU next before 2025 are Poland, although one would imagine they have quite enough going on right now for anything to happen in the immediate future. Next in the betting are Italy who join them as favourites, while Greece Hungary and France are next

Next Country to Leave the EU (before 2025)

We took a look at the betting at Smarkets exchange and they are offering the current odds for each country to be next to leave the EU

Country Odds Probability
Poland 4.6 21.74%
Italy 4.7 21.28%
Greece 7 14.29%
Hungary 7.4 13.51%
France 9 11.11%
Czech Republic 13.5 7.41%
Belgium 14 7.14%
Netherlands 14.5 6.90%
Ireland 24 4.17%


Poland and Italy are rated the most likely countries to exit the European Union before 2025, but individually are over 90% likely not to do so by that date. There is a lot going on in Europe right now.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Specialist - OLBG.com

Currently, the European Union is permitting Ukrainians fleeing their country to live and work in Poland for the next three years, as more than 3 million have flooded into the country in the last month since the conflict began on February 24th. 

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