Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

meoldmate
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Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby meoldmate » Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:22 pm

NEWMARKET

WETHERBY

AYR

ASCOT

DOWN ROYAL

NEWCASTLE

AROUND THE WORLD

FLEMINGTON, AUSTRALIA

AUTEUIL, FRANCE

ABU DHABI, UAE

DEL MAR, USA

CHURCHILL DOWNS, USA

Plenty of action with winners coming from our members, good luck and be lucky.

Robmull
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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby Robmull » Sat Nov 04, 2017 8:48 am

Here are my VALUE CALCULATOR selections for the Charlie Hall Chase (3.15) at Wetherby, which may offer a great opportunity for a slight surprise, as both Coneygree and Cue Card appear to have questions to answer, especially as they will be making their seasonal debuts.

DEFINITLY RED

Has won 4 of his 10 starts over fences, including the Grade 3 Rolland Meyrick Chase over this course and distance on Boxing Day. He has between 6 and 9 lbs to find with the market leaders based on official ratings, but has a history of running well on his seasonal debuts (2 wins, plus runner up in last 3 seasons) and with the VC analysis suggesting that he has a 13.1% chance of winning, his current best odds of 8/1 (11.1%) appeal.

BLAKLION

Has won 3 of his 12 starts over fences, but has not got his head in front since winning the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in March 2016. However, he ran well in defeat last year finishing fourth in this race and third in the Rowland Meyrick last season, plus his was fourth in the Grand National when last seen. The VC rates him as having a 13.1% of winning this event, which suggests that current best odds of 10/1 offer a bit of value.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find some good winners on this thread today.

Recent blogs:

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Using the VALUE CALCULATOR to Assess Handicap Chases
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412478

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Using the VALUE CALCULATOR to Assess Handicap Hurdle Races
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412771

How To Become A Sports Betting Millionaire (A Low Risk Strategy)
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412704

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby meoldmate » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:20 am

Good morning all and we have a good days racing ahead of us and hopefully we will get some inspiring previews for this afternoon and as see Robmill has open up the discussion page with his value calculator horses.

I am going to start with one of the races that is on ITV4 this afternoon 3.00 William Hill Listed race at Ascot, fifteen runners and a competitive race

Starting with a horse who has raced this season Peruvien Bleu who showed his well being by winning just nine days ago at Ludlow and he was held up well off the pace and came home with a wet sail and ran out an easy winner, he is also looked as if he will not start, might have his own ideas but he certainly knows where the winning post is, especially at Ludlow where he has won three of his four wins, the other at Towcester.

View
He might have staying power but their are speedier sorts in this race and they may be going that bit quicker and may find him out, can see him coming from off the pace but may miss out on a place claim.

Alan King runs two here with Elgin and Midnight Maestro, Tom Cannon comes in for the ride on Elgin and this five year old looks a progressive sort who may have a good season ahead, he had a pipe opener at Chepstow and finished in fourth place, this run may of been required and with this run under his belt, could be a strong challenger for this race today.He did beat market rival and favourite for this race Jenkins at Kempton last season and he followed up this race with a second position behind the ill fated Neon Wolf, very good form to come to this race with .
The second runner Midnight Maestro is not be underestimated either and Brendan Powell takes the ride, this five year old is lightly raced and when last seen at Chepstow in April he was pulled up as if something amiss but he won at Stratford before this and traveled well throughout that race and looks a horse who can go through a race without loosing his position but may need this outing but coming from Alan King yard, they can win on seasonal debut.

View
Of the two, I would be considering ELGIN very strongly as he looks the progressive of the two and with a run under his belt can lead the way to showing his potential and if wins this race in good style his entry for the Greatwood at Cheltenham could secure his run there and the 20/1 will be long gone for this race.

Jenkins favourite for this race and Nicky Henderson will have him spot on for this race, in April of this year he won a class four handicap without really breaking sweat and he was well odds on to do so.
Today he is upped in class and taking on his old enemy Elgin and he will need to find extra to get the better of this one, going on the Kempton performance of last December,

View

I think he will be a strong challenger coming up the straight but I am thinking he wil be playing second fiddle to Elgin once again.

Mr Saturday man Paul Nicholls is relying on Dolos who has raced ten times and won twice with seven placed positions and only a four year old, certainly one to keep an eye on.
Stepping up in class and he will need to step up to the plate with more if he is going to get the better of the top weighted Air Force One who beat him at Taunton in January as Harry Fry charge gave him twelve pounds and beat him over 7 1/2 lengths, today their is six pounds the difference, which really sees this one being held once again. Staying with this race Alan King had the second with The Unit, so he will know where he stands with these two.

View
I think this one could be winning a race elsewhere in the near future but not today.

Since mentioning the top weight, I will bring him into the picture, Air Force One. He has shown carrying big weights is no issue and after winning two races on the trot last season harry Fry stepped his charge up to graded races, with a fourth in the County hurdle at Cheltenham and sending him to Punchestown where he was tailed off and might of found the Cheltenham run may of taken more out of him than first thought.
He is only giving a pound away to several and can certainly be in the mix of things.

View
I rate this horse more of a danger than Jenkins to Elgin and Harry Fry must think something of him to run him in two prestige races, 8/1 best price looks a good Each Way cry.

For a big outsider for this race and my last view on this race is the bottom weighted West Indies, Gary Moore has two in the race and this one could be the more progressive of the two, Gary has his son up in the plate Jamie and the Authorized bred four year old has had two runs this term so far, wit ha win at Plumpton coming from well off the pace and the last at Wincanton where he was head strong and may of found the pace not in his favour, where today the pace could be a strong one and he can settle and be sitting off the pace.
He looks useful and for a 33/1 price tag could be worth a small Each Way investment.

View
West Indies is a worthy player here and what ever he shows here today, could see him progressing and winning races, he does get seventeen pounds from Elgin, which is plenty to have on your side but whether he has the talent to beat him remains to be seen.

CONCLUSION

Exciting hurdle race and a race that could be bearing fruit with races to come with winners, hopefully, the one I am hoping to see running a big race is ELGIN who looks to be potentially useful and Alan King has his yard runners in fine fettle and a big run could be coming here today, especially with him having a run at Chepstow which may now of put an edge on him.
13/2 with Paddy Power and bet365 are the best prices with other boards showing 6/1.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby meoldmate » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:44 am

Well Rob tou have tit on a very good race with the value calculator with DEFINITLY RED but do you not think he may not have the speed to be competitive with the likes of Coneygree and Cue Card. He was also beaten by another of today's runner Blaklion which was over course and distance back in February 2016. A good stayer and with him participating in the Grand National and beating The Last Samuri at Doncaster shows stamina than speed, also he was under pressure when unshipping his rider at Haydock with Bristol De Mai winning the race, he was hammered at the time of the mishap but was beaten at the time.
Mark Bradstock has Coneygree back to his best, this ten year old will take some beating and once again Cue Card could be his strongest challenger, if these two are not fit to do themselves justice, then your selection could be the player to go with,
To be honest Rob, I have never beat on Coneygree even when he won the Gold Cup, he is a joy to watch with his fast jumping and Cue Card now at eleven has had plenty of big races, could be telling. I do like your selection and Brian Ellison has his stable runners performing well and Danny Cook can settle his mount in a good position where he can use his stamina strengths to good use.

Great race to figure with and I am going to take you on Rob with the favourite CONEYGREE who could be ready to run a big race on debut as he has done in the past, certainly feared of your selection with the thought of stamina coming into play.

It is a shame we are not sitting in the same living room or even kitchen at the table pouring over the form, what debate we would be having, good luck, this race is more exciting than ever with our thoughts to the fore.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby meoldmate » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:57 am

Coming away from the main meetings of today and heading to Ayr 1.00 THE COBBLER SWAYNE is having his first run of the season and for a new handler as he has left Miss Lucinda Russell yard and now with Pauline Robson and he looks well treated to run a big race here. I like this horse and I think he is a useful sort who can be accountable in this race today, Brian Hughes has this ride and he could be having a good day at Ayr with potential rides that could be bearing rewards and this one the second of his six mounts could be his first, if he has not already won the first.
Miss Lucinda Russell is taking on her old charge with Voyage A New York but this eight year old has questionable form and I feel this yards runners are just not peaking as yet.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby Robmull » Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:09 pm

You could well be right meoldmate, as clearly Coneygree is the most likely winner of the race.

However, it is some time since he won the Gold Cup and we don’t know whether he is capable of running close to that level since he returned from injury.

Clearly, neither DEFINITLY RED, or BLAKLION are up to the level of form that either Coneygree, or for that matter Cue Card have recorded in the past, by my selections both have form over course and distance, will appreciate the softening of the ground caused by recent rain, tend to run well fresh and appear to have been underestimated in the betting market, in what in reality is probably their best chance this season to beat the market leaders.

Should be a fascinating race.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby meoldmate » Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:40 pm

James Bowen is a jockey who is on the up and he along with Jack Kennedy are the jockeys for the future.
The ground does look soft at Wetherby and it looks to take some getting as the winner of the last race La Baque Au Roi only got home as her class told, so Robmull fancy DEFINITLY RED could be fitting the bill with stamina playing the stronger part than speed which could find Coneygree out.
Before this race we have 2.40 and I think Nigel Twiston Davies charge WHOLESTONE could be coming out on top and this one will be stripping a lot fitter here after his Chepstow,

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby Gman84 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:43 pm

Some lovely jumps racing today. I should have posted some of my thoughts but was strapped for time. Can’t say you’d have missed too much but I enjoyed a small e/w won on Outlander and also on Elgin.

Some disappointments today though for race fans as Coneygree jumped inconsistently before being pulled up then Cud Card hit the deck when right in the mix. Let’s hope both are ok but let’s also hope both sets of connections consider their future carefully.

Also Our Duke a big let down in Ireland, I’ve not seen the race yet but sounds like he was never in and didn’t perform well. It’s early days though.


Anyway, Breeders Cup tonight and a few little bets for interest on my part. Most are combined into Lucky 15’s or 31’s but a couple of singles to go with them.

19:00 - Alluring Star and Caledonia Road . The former has won at this track then a respectable second to the fav (Moonshine Memories) but may have set that one up so could try different tactics today. The latter won its maiden then was 2nd to another runner in this race but left itself a lot to do from the rear so might be tried with different tactics. Both e/w.

19:37 - I’ve had a single win on Marsha as whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lady Aurelia switch the placings from York I just think at the prices it offers way better value. Elgin’s win today was a good omen (same ownership). Holding Gold looks a consistent sort who could place whilst I think Mongolian Saturday is overpriced for a horse that’s done it at this level before (won this in ‘15 at 5.5f at Keeneland). The latter two are e/w considerations.

20:14 - Paulasilverlining didn’t run well last time but did well in this race last year (3rd) and has won well in good company since so looks the e/w value in this. The horse that did win it last year, Finest City, is also a good e/w price but comes in off a four month layoff although did it off a 2 month break last year. Two more for the e/w players.

21:00 - Grand Jete has disappointed as fav last time but still ran well and can definitely be competitive at this level. Cambodia has won her twice so is the other e/w play.

21:37 - Imperial Hint has some very nice form coming into this but will need to up its game even more whilst Ransom The Moon also appeals at a bigger price as a C&D winner but was not so good last time so needs to bounce back.

22:19 - Midnight Storm was 3rd in this last year and has won some a G1 on turf and done fine on dirt also. Some tough competition here but looks a fair e/w price.

22:58 - US Navy Flag is the best horse in the field IMO but needs to show he can handle dirt. Doubt makes for a bigger price so I can play e/w.

23:37 - Highland Reel has his conditions and remember what he done at this festival last year? Sadler’s Joy might be the one that can pick up places with a strong pace seeing others drop away and it’ll like conditions so that’s the e/w bet for me.

00:35 - The big one! Arrogate is a special horse but not unbeatable and Collected is a quality horse that loves fast dirt tracks so I’d rather take that e/w.

No massive bets, all totalling the cost of a few pints down the local today but some interest in quality racing. Good luck whatever you back.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby Randy Rann » Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:00 pm

Good work & good luck GMAN
Agree there was some cracking racing today and though Coneygree & Cue Card were disappointing I sense the changing of the guard.
Bristol de Mai & Blaklion look a lovely pair of chasers to follow and my old fave Blaklion looks sure to make a bold bid for the Becher Chase. All roads lead back to the National now.
The Gold Cup picture was muddied today with Our Duke flopping too and Sizing John is getting my attention more & more!
Lady Buttons ran a stormer to bustle up the fave in Olbg's race and I thought I'd landed a tidy punt there......sadly not to be but defo one to follow

The Breeders Cup is not everyone's cup of tea and I was looking for a thread here today, but only found this one.
I remember the greats from Arazi to Zenyatta and love the quality of the races
Arrogate, Highland Reel & Queen's Trust landed me a fair punt last year and all should go close again but for me tonight I like the look of the following for some Each Way shouts and an ew lucky

Queen's Trust
Suedois
Talismanic
West Coast

Reasoning in the tips comments and good luck if you're trying to wrestle the button box off anyone tonight to watch the action on ATR

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby meoldmate » Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:11 pm

SOUND AND SILENCE could be rising to the occasion with a good draw to make him competitive, British horses can achieve something from America and this one might have more in the locker to give and William Buick getting himself a big winner and a the best out of this youngster.

ELGIN done the thread page justice today and DEFINITLY RED gave the Each Way shout a return too, with little input we received good returns.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby meoldmate » Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:27 pm

Where the hell did Ryan Moore came from to snatch that race, Sound and Silence was perfectly placed and thought William Buick had made a winning move coming up the straight, nabbed just before the line, cannot stop the A O'B team, once again Ryan at his best from off the pace.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 4th November

Postby Gman84 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:04 pm

Nice start, 1st and 2nd :win: Thought Alluring Star had it won off the bend but just not quite enough petrol in the track!

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