Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby AlienSquare » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:55 am

Hi David,

Could you send me the work file?
I have thought to use similar approach but never got it into a final form, so would love to see your ideas.

Also, how you are putting this to practice? do you keep any betting history, and how is it going?

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:22 pm

Hi,

This is in reality very much a WIP. Although all aspects are being monitored, not all are getting a full analysis. I intend to do that in the close season when there is a full season of data to look at and no rush to get it done between matches.

The process is complex but quite automated. Certain fields are definitely better than others and it is a question of whether the weaker performing aspects should/could be improved, or ditched in order to concentrate on those parts that have performed more reliably.

This is NOT a tipping service as such because relevant details such as selection, suspensions etc can't be taken into account. However, matches can (and should) be ignored if circumstances dictate that it is not a 'standard team A' at home against a 'standard team B' away.

I can post a few performance tables later in the week.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:54 pm

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:50 pm

These tables are taken from the records for the first 314 matches. They obviously include the early results not done to quite the same program. Although being anything like linear was always too much to expect, they are beginning to take a recognisable pattern.

Average Goal predictions split by Rank and RangeDraws by predicted HOME supremacy

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Over/Under by % prediction......................................BTTS by % prediction.

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Home Win to nil by % prediction.................................................................Away Win to nil by % prediction.

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Draws by predicted HOME supremacy

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:10 pm

Round 33 produced 29 goals with 6 over 2.5 goals, 9 BTTS Yes, and 0 Wins to nil (0 home 0 away).

Average Goals top.
5 2 5 0 4
Average Goals bottom.
3 2 3 2 3
Over 2.5 Goals.
2 5 5 0 4
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
3 2 3 2 3
Home teams winning to nil.
Won Drew Drew Lost Lost Drew Lost Drew Drew Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Won Won Drew Drew Drew Won Drew Won Lost Drew
BTTS Yes.
Lost Won Won Won Won
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Lost Lost Lost Lost Lost

An odd set of results. I had predicted several surprise away wins but even with both teams scoring in 9 matches and the away team not scoring in the other, there was only one home win.

We are approaching the point in the season where certain matches will mean a lot more to one team than the other so this must be taken into consideration.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:19 pm

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:17 am

For the postponed matches being played this week.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:38 am

Round 34 and a few bits of 31 &35 produced 36 goals with 6 over 2.5 goals, 9 BTTS Yes, and 4 Wins to nil (2 home 2 away). 14 matches in total.
These are the figures for Round 34 only (10 matches).

Average Goals top.
3 4 1 2 3
Average Goals bottom.
5 5 3 2 1
Over 2.5 Goals.
3 4 1 2 3
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
5 5 3 2 1
Home teams winning to nil.
Lost Yes Won Drew Won Drew Lost Yes Won Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Won Lost Lost Drew Won Drew Drew Lost Yes Lost
BTTS Yes.
Lost Won Won Lost Won
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Won Lost Lost Lost Lost



We are at the point in the season where certain matches will mean a lot more to one team than the other so this must be taken into consideration.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:51 am

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:18 am

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Apologies for the error on the Tottenham line. It would appear that I didn't update the correct scores from the match before.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Thu May 03, 2018 11:26 pm

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon May 07, 2018 10:57 pm

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