Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:52 am

It is getting to the end of February and soon some matches will be far more important than others. Meanwhile, Poisson figures are becoming more reliable and have consistently performed better in some areas than others. After this round of matches, I shall endeavour to highlight some selections based solely on the figures. They do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, suspensions, fixture lists, or team selection.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:36 pm

As the result of Arsenal v Man City would not affect the next round of matches, they are posted below.
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The following are the best and next best bets based on the past performance of similar figures but do not take into account odds or relevant match info.

Over 2.5 goals. Man City v Chelsea, Tottenham v Huddersfield, and Liverpool v Newcastle.
Under 2.5 goals. Burnley v Everton, and Crystal Palace v Man Utd.
Home Win-to-0. Tottenham and Liverpool.
Away Win-to-0. Man Utd and Arsenal.
BTTS Yes. Swansea v West Ham, and Brighton v Arsenal.
BTTS No. Burnley v Everton, Tottenham v Huddersfield, and Crystal Palace v Man Utd.
Draws. Swansea v West Ham, Burnley v Everton, and Watford v West Brom.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:47 pm

Round 28 saw 29 goals with 6 over 2.5 goals, 7 BTTS Yes, and 3 Wins to nil (1 home 2 away).

Average Goals top.
5 3 3 2 4
Average Goals bottom.
2 5 1 3 1
Over 2.5 Goals.
5 3 2 3 4
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
2 5 1 3 1
Home teams winning to nil.
Drew Won Lost Won Drew Won Drew Yes Lost Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Yes Yes Drew Lost Lost Lost Drew Won Drew Lost
BTTS Yes.
Won Won Lost Won Lost
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Lost Lost Lost Won Lost

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:15 pm

Round 29 saw 24 goals with 4 over 2.5 goals, 5 BTTS Yes, and 4 Wins to nil (4 home 0 away).

Average Goals top.
1 2 2 2 5
Average Goals bottom.
3 5 1 0 3
Over 2.5 Goals.
2 1 2 2 5
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
3 5 1 0 3
Home teams winning to nil.
Yes Yes Won Drew Yes Drew Yes Won Won Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Won Lost Lost Lost Lost Drew Lost Drew Lost Lost
BTTS Yes.
Won Won Won Lost Lost
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Lost Won Lost Won Won

In weeks where there are fewer goals, Correct Scores do much better. Unfortunately, this is primarily due to the fact that the most likely scores involve the least goals.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:52 pm

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:24 pm

The following are the best and next best bets based on the past performance of similar figures but do not take into account odds or relevant match info.

Over 2.5 goals. Arsenal v Watford, and Man Utd v Liverpool. Chelsea v Crystal Palace.
Under 2.5 goals. West Ham v Burnley. Newcastle v Southampton.
Home Win-to-0. Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, and Man Utd.
Away Win-to-0. Man City, Tottenham.
BTTS Yes. Arsenal v Watford, West Brom v Leicester, Man Utd v Liverpool, and Chelsea v Crystal Palace.
BTTS No. Everton v Brighton, West Ham v Burnley, and Stoke v Man City, .
Draws. Newcastle v Southampton, and West Ham v Burnley. Huddersfield v Swansea, and West Brom v Leicester.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:37 pm

Just the 4 matches this week. I have amended the season weighting to 2 3 6 10 at which it will remain for the rest of this season.

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:20 pm

Round 30 saw 29 goals with 7 over 2.5 goals, 4 BTTS Yes, and 5 Wins to nil (3 home 2 away).

Average Goals top.
3 3 3 5 5
Average Goals bottom.
3 2 3 0 2
Over 2.5 Goals.
3 3 3 5 5
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
3 2 3 0 2
Home teams winning to nil.
Won Yes Yes Won Lost Drew Yes Lost Lost Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Yes Won Won Yes Lost Drew Lost Lost Lost Lost
BTTS Yes.
Lost Won Won Won Won
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Won Won Won Won Won

Possibly the best set of results so far.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:29 pm

The following are the best and next best bets based on the past performance of similar figures but do not take into account odds or relevant match info.

Over 2.5 goals. Liverpool v Watford
Under 2.5 goals. Stoke v Everton.
Home Win-to-0. Liverpool Bournemouth
Away Win-to-0.
BTTS Yes.
BTTS No. Stoke v Everton.
Draws. Bournemouth v West Brom, Huddersfield v Crystal Palace, and Stoke v Everton.
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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:19 pm

A depleted Round 31 of just 4 matches saw 13 goals with 3 over 2.5 goals, 2 BTTS Yes, and 2 Wins to nil (1 home 1 away).

Average Goals top.
5 3
Average Goals bottom.
3 2
Over 2.5 Goals.
5 3
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
2 3
Home teams winning to nil.
Yes Won Lost Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Yes Won Lost Lost
BTTS Yes.
Lost Lost
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Lost Lost

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:21 pm

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Re: Poisson Distribution - This Can Help You

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:44 pm

Round 32 produced 29 goals with 7 over 2.5 goals, 5 BTTS Yes, and 5 Wins to nil (4 home 1 away).

Average Goals top.
3 4 2 4 3
Average Goals bottom.
3 3 1 2 4
Over 2.5 Goals.
3 4 2 3 4
Under 2.5 Goals. (The quoted figures are for OVER so deduct from 100)
3 3 1 2 4
Home teams winning to nil.
Yes Yes Yes Lost Drew Lost Yes Lost Lost Lost
Away teams winning to nil.
Won Won Won Lost Yes Won Drew Lost Lost Lost
BTTS Yes.
Won Lost Won Lost Won
BTTS No. (The quoted figures are for YES so deduct from 100)
Won Lost Won Won Won

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