Grand National Combination Forecasts

Rambles
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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:45 pm

Wow ! I have just realised the difference beteween the tote and the tricast last year. What a huge difference. Why would you not place it via tote for this race ?!

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:58 pm

Is there a way to calculate the rough returns on a forecast/tricast if you know the odds? Or does it vary bookie to bookie?
No Jimmy

The CSF or Computer straight forecast is virtually impossible to predict by the prices and the Exacta is a pool based bet which all depends on what other punters have chosen, if less have chosen your horses then it pays more, if more have chosen your horses then it pays less.

Here are a couple of examples from Friday -

Leicester 2.55 - 5 runners
Winner 5/2JT, runner up 9/2.
Straight Forecast £13.35 Exacta £13.00

Leicester 3.30 - 5 runners
Winner 7/1, runner up 7/2
Straight Forecast £29.70 Exacta £27.90

gripperrocks
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Postby gripperrocks » Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:58 am

Just for interest I'm going to do a combo tricast on the following 4. 2 picked by the missus, 2 by me.

Cappa Bleu
Roberto Goldback
Always Waining
On His Own

:hope:

kyle21b
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Postby kyle21b » Sat Apr 06, 2013 12:19 pm

Winner 7/1, runner up 7/2
Straight Forecast £29.70

Micko,


The forecasts are done on SP so I think you can estimate the returns, can't you?


I usually multiply the prices and take away a little bit. I take away a bit more if the favoured horse comes 1st instead of second.


So using your example,

winner 7/1
second place 7/2

= 8 times 4.5 minus a bit. This equates to £36 take away a little. I would've guessed about 31 so 29 seems right.

If it was 7/2 followed by 7/1 I would estimate the forecast to be about £24.


Of course this is VERY ROUGH but it's not a total guess. Picking two 20/1 runners to finish 1st and 2nd will probably pay somewhere around £350 (i would guestimate).

deswalker
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Postby deswalker » Sat Apr 06, 2013 2:05 pm

Small stakes combination forecasts on my 4, with miniscule stakes tricasts as well (you never know...). The 4 being;

Cappa Bleu (I've been spouting on about him for 3 months)
Balthazar King (Jumps, stays, classy and feasibly handicapped still, got his ground... what more do you want?)
Quiscover Fontaine (Looks a real plot for this)
The Rainbow Hunter (the best looking of the outsiders for me)

Best of luck all! :hope:
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kyle21b
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Postby kyle21b » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:31 pm

Had teaforthree and Cappa Bleu in my combinations....had to be a rag to beat me out of it!

To add to my misery, my little brother (15 years old) had a 5er on him e/w. Wish I could swear haha!

:lose:

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