Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 16th March 2016 (Day 2)

Gman84
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Postby Gman84 » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:05 pm

That was mightly impressive from Yansworth and just a great day for Alan King in general. In as short as 5/2 in places. Best prive left is 3/1 with SportingBet.
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Postby The Market Man » Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:10 pm

I'm surprised that Shantou Village has drifted slightly for this and shortened up for the Albert Bartlett. He was beaten by a horse better suited to those conditions and they are unlikely to be replicated in March. Horses have been beaten in the trial and yet won the Neptune

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Postby Robmull » Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:47 pm

Yanworth was impressive in the trial for this race at Cheltenham on Saturday and probably sets the standard for the race based on that effort and as such is a worthy favourite at this stage.

However, whether he offers any value at the current odds is another matter, as he was only fourth in the Champion Bumper on better ground at last year's Festival, albeit he was beaten under 4 lengths and travelled wider than the main protagonists in that race.

Having just completed my trends based blog for the race, there currently appear to be a number of runners towards the head of the betting that have similarly strong profiles based on the trends that may offer better value at this stage.

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Key Race Trends – 16 March 2016
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=410620

Look forward to reading further discussions between now and the running of the race.

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Postby Brownie3 » Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:48 pm

I thought Yarnworth looked very decent on Saturday, a real challenger for the English to serve upto team Mullins.

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Postby Robmull » Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:07 pm

Agreed, but the odds are cramped at around 11/4, when a number of the other runners at the head of the betting have still to run in their prep race.

A strong performance by a Willie Mullins trained candidate would probably see Yanworth drift in the market, plus the bookies will be competing ferociously for business on the day, so may well offer better value, perhaps with a concession thrown in for good measure.

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Postby The Market Man » Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:43 pm

Mulholland has said that Shantou Village's target will not be known until maybe a few days before the festival as it's ground dependent.
Good ground all week - Albert Bartlett.
Good ground Wednesday but rain expected Friday - Neptune
Soft ground all week- no festival at all.

Walsh said he hated the ground at Cheltenham and did very well to finish second. If that's the case, why not run him in the Neptune on Good ground on a course and distance he's won over ?

Backed him now for the AB anyway, to go with the earlier Neptune bet

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Postby DaveTehTipst0r » Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:15 pm

i was very taken by yanworths performance at weekend, cruised past some decent animals very easily and powered away.. impressive

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Postby Micko70 » Sun Feb 07, 2016 1:15 pm

Another boost for Yanworth after the first at Musselburgh, with Charbel winning easily, he was just under 3L behind him at Ascot in December

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Postby Brownie3 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:56 pm

What do we say about Bellshill, forgive him or purely a Mullins hype horse?

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Postby jackh1092 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:16 pm

What do we say about Bellshill, forgive him or purely a Mullins hype horse?

I have never been a massive fan of the horse, he's looked decent this year, and theres no way that was his true running.

ruby had stopped trying on him 2 or 3 fences out.

I would hesitate to call him a hype horse, as he has done things very nicely up until Lep. Also, his punchestown bumper has worked out incredibly well- Disko, Charbel, Modus, Altior and Supasundae in behind.

Kings theatre, so it could be argued he will like the ground at cheltenham as his progeny do well there.

However, I'm pretty certain 29 of last 30 winners of neptune winners have finished 1st or 2nd in race prior....
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Postby Brownie3 » Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:16 am

Yorkhill looks to have re-routed to the Neptune, in light of Bellshill's poor weekend run.

He's drfited to 40's on Befair for the Supreme, into 10's for the Neptune.

Not sure if we'll see Bellshill come March time.

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Postby jackh1092 » Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:13 am

got to say i'd think Yorkhill would suit the neptune trip. His last race, he cruised to the front but found less than expected in front. The ground may have blunted his turn of foot, but the bumper he won last year at Punchestown suggested to me that he wasn't a speed merchant either.
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