A place in the sun in June

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:28 pm

Two for today.
Carlisle 2.45 Power To Exceed System 2. 1pt. I have asked for 1.5. I will not accept less.
Windsor 7.30 Bahamian Dollar System 1. 1pt. I have asked for 1.8. I will accept 1.6 or above.

redboy
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby redboy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:35 pm

I'm not sure I should post on here - last time I did I jinxed it ! But good going again.
Are you tempted to place a small win bet on as well as your place bets ? I've noticed a fair few winners.Or are you happy with the place element?
Continued good luck to you :win:

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:14 pm

Don't worry. Redboy, there's no jinx- just hard work leading to the results. I probably jinxed myself!!! There are bound to be times when things go awry slightly.
The bet on Power To Exceed did not get matched, so the bet cannot count. However it did win at 13-8 :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: As for Bahamian Dollar I got 1.76 - it started at 1.78 BSP, and finished 3rd :3: .
The update is now as follows:-

Running totals
Horses 17, winners 5 (29.41%)
Place bets 17, winning place bets 11 (64.71%)
All systems
+1.375 pts.
Comparison win SP
+1.18pts
As you can see from the place/win comparison there is little point in having a win bet on all qualifiers.
However, looking back at the qualifiers on all systems this year there are two occasions where win bets could have been made.
1) Non-handicaps. W11-4, W4-1, 2nd 5-1,W3-1, 6th 4-1, 3rd 11-2, 2nd 5-2, 2nd 3-1, W7-2, W7-2, W100-30, W2-1, W3-1, W15-8, W11-10, W13-8 (see above) i.e. Qualifiers 16, Winners 11
2) Handicap Hurdles.W7-2, W100-30, W5-1, W7-2, W100-30, 2nd 4-1, W85-40, 2nd 3-1, W7-2, 3rd 12-1, 3rd 15-2, W2-1, 4th 4-1, W13-8, W11-4,
W100-30, 4th 4-1, PU 7-2, W100-30, 2nd 5-2. i.e. Qualifiers 20, Winners 12
Given the level of winners, I will back non-handicaps to 0.5 pts win and handicap hurdlers to 0.5pts EW. I will include adjustments for the win/EW bets this month in the next blog.
Thanks for the suggestion and interest.

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:43 pm

There is one qualifier on system D (handicaps) this evening.
Brighton 8.10 Sharp Operator. 1pt in the normal place market. I have asked for 1.61. I will not accept less than 1.6.
My systems operate with horses with great chances for the class. Hence top class racing like Royal Ascot does not interest me.
Looking at past results in my last blog, the following would have been bet for win/Each Way this month so far. Obviously greater prices might have been received with BOG bookies. I have decided to go with 1pt win for novice/maidens and 1pt EW for handicaps for comparison purposes with the SPs of all qualifiers for a win.
Novices/maidens
Ganayem W11-10
Havana Breeze 4th 5-2
Hasanoanda W2-1
Early Edition 11th 7-2
Power To Exceed W13-8
All 1pt each results in +2.78pts
Handicap Hurdles
Titus Bolt W100-30
Howlongisafoot 2nd 5-2
All 1pt Each Way results in +3.75pts

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:52 pm

Sharp Operator ruined its chances with a very slow start and racing widest of all down the straight. Never mind. These things happen.

Running totals
Horses 18, winners 5 (27.8%%)
Place bets 18, winning place bets 11 (61.11%)
All systems
+0.375 pts.
Comparison win SP
+0.18pts

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:12 pm

There is no bet today.
Following on from the losing bet yesterday, I am going to suspend system 4 on handicaps until I have more data. There have been only 4 bets on the Flat using this system, resulting in 2 places and 2 losers (50%). I am looking for 66% as a minimum, but further results will tell me more. It was successful on National Hunt and All Weather bets, but, as yet, not proven on the Flat.
Also, following on from Redboy's suggestions, I will include novice/maiden and handicap hurdle win bets in the blog and profit totals. I am not sure why handicap hurdle results are 12/20 winners (Profit +29.32pts) whereas handicap chase results are 9/20 (+18.35pts);perhaps someone can suggest some reasoning behind this.
I know the above win profits look tempting to back regardless, but there can be losing runs of 7+ and I need the reassurance of regular returns with very short losing runs of 2 max. to keep confidence levels high, and that is what place betting does for me. After a while, there is as much satisfaction in seeing a horse finish in the first three as having a winner, with three chances of this happening rather than just one.
Happy punting!

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:08 am

There is nothing doing for the afternoon meetings yet.
However, I just wanted to discuss the Cracksman result yesterday in regard to place betting.
The horse was 2-5 (1.4 in decimal) at the off. Compare this to the 2.39 (about 11-8) that was returned for a place in the normal market for the winner, Poet's Word. I think that even the additional place return must have been about 1.6 (3-5 in fractional), still better than Crackman's SP. Even if Poet's Word had been second it would have still been a winning bet.
Backing odds on to win can only lead to ruin in my opinion. I ask for a minimum of 1.6 in the normal place market (often for 3 places) and 1.5 in the additional place market (often for 4 places). How much better value is this with better guarantees?
My main problem is getting the right horses to place. This is still an ongoing task, but I am getting there, I think.

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:59 pm

There was a qualifier this afternoon - Chelmsford 4.05 Shailene on system B. However, it was trading at 8-11 for the win, so I did not tip it. The horse won :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: . I forgot to recommend it for a 1pt win so it cannot count. Anyway, being odds on, I could hardly recommend it given my thoughts about odds on shots!
Oh well, I will have to remember another time (if there is one).
Back tomorrow.

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:58 pm

One for this evening
Newmarket 9.05 Little Miss Lola 1pt in the additional market. I have taken 1.94. It's back up figures are very impressive compared to the opposition.

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:15 pm

A disappointing outcome, when I was quite hopeful. Little Miss Lola was only 5th. Looking through my criteria again, I realised I missed a rule which would have eliminated it. That is twice I have done that, meaning my profit total would have been +1.375. As it is, I have to accept the following:-
Running totals
Horses 19, winners 5 (26.3%)
Place bets 19, winning place bets 11 (57.9%)
All systems
-0.625 pts.
Comparison win SP
-0.82pts
Novice/maiden selections this month -win only - 5 runners, 3 winners +2.78pts
Handicap Hurdle selections this month - EW only - 2 runners, 1 winner, 1 placed +3.75pts

I am finding the Flat difficult to find place qualifiers. Maybe the wide choice of venues with the different track conformations is an issue. I don't really know. Anyway, despite my errors, still less than 1pt down after 19 bets isn't bad, though nowhere near good enough. How many punters at the end of Royal Ascot can say they were less than 1pt down after making 19 bets?

bhewitt
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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:55 pm

I'll be glad when Royal Ascot is over, as all the attention has been there, where there are, for the most part, very competitive fields. So there is no place today.
But I do feel that Harry Angel, whose record at Ascot is 2224 is a confident lay. There is a lot of quality opposition and anyone of the American, Irish or Australian horses may beat it.

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Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:12 pm

I managed a lay on Harry Angel today, so have some funds available for this evening.
I am going to recommend Haydock 7.45 De Medici 1pt in the normal place market. I have asked for 1.6 as a minimum. It qualifies on system C. However, I am not certain about the 2f drop since last time.

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