PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

undertherobe
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PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby undertherobe » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:49 pm

Welcome to the player of the week thread for the week commencing Monday August 7th. One of the biggest fortnights of the calendar outside the Grand Slams await us as the US Open preparation for the top players commences in Canada.

Events this week
Aug 7th - Aug 13th ATP Montreal (Hard) - ATP 1000
Aug 7th - Aug 13th WTA Toronto (Hard) - WTA Premier 5

Please add the player you think will win either of these events along with 50-100 words of reasoning and the odds/bookmaker. Just ONE entry per member please.

Feel free to discuss multiple players & individual matches

The points scoring for this week is as follows (already adjusted x1.5 due to the level of the events this week):

If your player wins: 60 points
If your player finishes runner-up: 30 points
If your player loses in the semi-finals: 15 points
If you players loses in the quarter-finals: 7.5 points

A player's score will be doubled if their POTW selection is priced at 8/1 or over.

Good luck everyone :win:

The rabbit
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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby The rabbit » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:18 pm

WTA Toronto

So far this year, Angelique Kerber 14/1 has not yet managed to perform as well as she did in 2016 but her latest performance in the 4th round at Wimbledon where she lost in a close 3 setter to the eventual Champion Garbiñe Muguruza was one of her best of the season. I think that she will take encouragement from that effort and it could be a sign that she might be returning to her best form and she does have a reasonably good draw.

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby undertherobe » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:53 pm

A quick look at the top 2 seeds in Montreal and you could be forgiven for thinking we'd gone back 10 years. With Djokovic & Murray absent, Nadal & Federer are the top 2 seeds this week and with the dominance of the Big Four at this level over the past 7-8 years, I find it hard to steer myself away from those two. The last 66 Masters 1000 events have been won by one of the Big Four on 60 occasions.

Federer has lost just 2 matches in 2017, and in those 2 defeats he had match point. He is arguably playing as well as he's ever played, and he's adapted his schedule to maximise his chances of winning specific events and is no longer concentrating on his world ranking. He still carries an aura about him that has most players beaten before they've even taken the court against him and against some of the top seeds in his half of the draw, he's won 4 straight against 5th seed Nishikori, all 6 meetings against 7th seed Dimitrov & 8 straight against 10th seed Berdych. He's also beaten top seed Nadal 3 times in 2017.

Alex Zverev & Dominic Thiem are the 2 players I believe genuinely don't fear Federer & Thiem is a potential SF opponent whilst Zverev is in the opposite half. However, Thiem has won just 5 of his last 9 matches, after a superb 1st half to 2017 whilst winning back to back on the ATP Tour is a tough thing to do, and I think his Washington success could catch up with him

Roger Federer @ 7/4 (ATP Montreal)

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby rustie » Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:30 am

Pretty sick of Federer at this point to be honest and this has been one of his poorest tournaments (in Montreal) over the years. It's a pretty tough draw with some big hitters for Nadal as well so I'm going to hope neither of them make the final with my picks.

Del Potro @33/1 (EW) to win Montreal is my player of the week.

Del Potro hasn't really got going this year but also has generally lost to top players in tournaments. This has historically been the part of the year in which he thrives making the final here and going on to win the US Open back in 2009. He has a tough R1 match against Isner but does lead the head to head 5-2 whilst the bigger servers don't do great in Montreal. He should beat his R2 opponent to set up a tie against Nadal. He's beaten Nadal in their last two meetings including the Olympics last year whilst Rafa despite being much improved in 2017, has shown against Querrey and Muller than he can still lose to a big guy off clay. QF should be Raonic who he has a 2-1 head to head lead against and the Canadian hasn't been in great form. it could be any of A. Zverev, Tsonga or Kyrgios after that and with the latter probably fatigued from winning Washington, Kyrgios retiring in his last three tournaments and Tsonga having a difficult year then I think he's got a chance of the final. Federer would probably beat him in the final whilst he lost to Nishikori last week so I'm only backing him E/W for the title.

Nishikori @20/1 to win Montreal

Federer is the big favourite to come through this half but he isn't infallable and won't win all the time at his age. Nishikori made the SF here in 2015 and the final in Toronto last year so I think he's a good alternative. He has a R1 bye and could have a tough second round against Monfils but he does lead the head to head 3-0. He leads the head to head against likely R3 opponent Bautista 4-1 too. His QF should be against Federer and Nishikori lost in five sets in their Australian Open tie earlier this year and I think he could cause an upset with Federer less fresh than he was then after six months rest. One of Thiem, Dimitrov and Pouille would then likely stand in the way and none have impressed this year compared to previous years so I think Nishikori would progress. He has only beaten Nadal twice in 11 meetings but it was their last meeting at the Olympics last year and here in Montreal back in 2015 6-2 6-4 so I'm backing him for the title.

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby rustie » Mon Aug 07, 2017 2:08 am

Ramos Vinolas @1/1 to beat Haase

Both pretty poor on hard courts with the former admittedly probably worse. However the Spaniard is certainly a better player and has a hard court match under his belt coming into the tournament unlike Haase. He also won easily when they met in Qualifying and the main draw of Monte Carlo (Haase LL) in their last couple of meetings so he's worth backing at these odds.

Pouille 2-0 @9/5 to beat Donaldson

Pouille has had a few defeats of late to surprising players but his stats are decent generally winning the majority of points on his first and second serve so he isn't doing too much wrong on his side of the court. Donaldson hasn't been in great form and lost emphatically in their previous meeting (albeit on clay in 2015). Donaldson has failed to serve 50% of his first serves in during four of his last five matches and that sort of form should put him to the sword in this one.

Paire @5/4 to beat Young

I struggle to predict matches for both of these players but Paire probably has the better skill set so if motivated then I expect him to win. Montreal all is a French speaking city so I think he enjoys being there. He beat Kohlschreiber and Wawrinka here in his last appearance in 2013 so certainly capable of knocking out the American.

Del Potro @19/20 to beat Isner

Del Potro hasn't found that spark this year but he has lost to good players in a lot of tournaments such as Djokovic x3, Federer, Murray, Kyrgios, Raonic and Nishikori so it's not like he's suffering a lot of unexpected or embarrassing defeats. Isner has won a couple of weak tournaments of late but is 4-8 against players ranked in the top 33 in 2017 (Del Potro=32) so I think the Argentine will win.

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby Fredgarv » Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:01 am

Have to agree with the post earlier on Nadal and Federer I can't see past those two players myself although the nature of sport says they both won't reach the final I am taking the spaniard myself just like his aging counterpart Federer they have given themselves plenty of time to recover and barring rustiness in their opening game they should go a good way in this event the more experienced players seem to be having a good time of things lately and I think that will continue for a while there still seems to be that air of self defeat when they play the lesser ranked players hard is not the most favoured surface for Nadal but class players find a way to win when others capitulate especially in sports like tennis and golf where the mindset is a big part of the game
NADAL

I will add I think that is a brave shout on Del Potro he has a really tough opener.

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby undertherobe » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:00 pm

Awarding a wildcard to 29 year old Peter Polansky seems pretty strange. But the Canadian reached a career high 115 in the world last week and has reached back to back to back Challenger finals in Canada. He lost all 3 finals but is 7/4 to beat fellow wildcard Vasek Pospisil and that looks a decent bet for me

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby Emmasa » Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:07 pm

Sad to see both Djokovic and Murray withdrew from the tournament and from the race to n.1 as well. That shows us how frustratin can be to be a pro player in the Federer era. I can' t really see beyond Federer in this event as rivals look weak and demotivated. Nadal last title on hardcourt is Doha 2014 and he lost 7-8 finals since then on this surface, and I think Isner will beat him in the 3rd round. So I take Fedrerer @ 2.62 to win Montreal

Isner to beat Delpotro
This is my bet of the day, an even price for a player with 2 titles under his belt in last three weeks. I like and usually support Delpo but I didnt like him losing to an erratic Nishikori in straight sets in Washington, against a player he usually dominates. It's true that this season he lost mainly to top guys, but losing 3 out of 3 to Djokovic-2017 is not very good.

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby Emmasa » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:07 pm

My bets of the day suck, good call on Polansky

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby undertherobe » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:38 pm

Zverev has made the most out of saving match point in his opening match, narrowly avoiding the fate of most of the seeds this weeks. He's now just 2 wins away from becoming the 1st player outside the big four since Nalbandian in 2007 to win 2 Masters events in a calendar year.

Surely Shapovalov's long week will catch up to him tonight? Federer is just ridiculous at the moment, he's won 10 straight Masters semi-finals and should have no problem taking care of Haase.

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby rustie » Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:55 pm

Well that puts a stop to what was looking like an inevitable run of success for Federer until the end to the year.

Could well be that Alexander Zverev creates some history in the coming months.

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Re: PLAYER OF THE WEEK - WEEK TWELVE w/c Mon Aug 7th

Postby undertherobe » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:47 pm

Results for Week 12

Emmasa - Roger Federer @ 2.62 (ATP Montreal) - lost in Final 30 points
undertherobe - Roger Federer @ 7/4 (ATP Montreal) - lost in Final 30 points
The Rabbit - Angelique Kerber @ 14/1 (WTA Toronto) - lost in 3rd round 0 points
rustie - Juan Martin Del Potro @ 33/1 (ATP Montreal) - lost in 2nd round 0 points

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