ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Emmasa
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ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby Emmasa » Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:40 pm

These are the players I would lay in the next month because I think their form is shaky and they can fall against lower ranked players.

N. Djokovic - I would lay Djokovic in Indian Wells and my call is that he's not winning the title. Same in Miami. He won the last 3 editions, nobody won 4 consecutive and his form is obviously horrible. He's 20th in the Race ranking. He can fall anytime

S.Wawrinka - Wawrinka never went beyond QFs in Indian Wells and last time he reached QF was in 2011. Statistics is very against him in US events: US Open 2016 is the only US event he won, he never even reached the final in any US event before that, he never won a Master 1000 on hard court. Never went beyond R16 in Miami

Cilic - He's 5-5 in 2017 and his form is horrible. Best run both in Indian Wells and Miami was QF (once), but he will lose earlier this time

Federer - I don't expect Federer to make a deep run in Indian Wells and I am not even sure he will play Miami. At his age every match is a tough match and in these events you have to play almost every day. In Grand Slam you always have a day off between matches and that makes a great difference.

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby undertherobe » Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:02 pm

I've amended the thread title to cover the men's and women's events in Indian Wells and Miami. Two huge events to look forward to.

Please add your thoughts to this thread

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ATP Indian Wells Preview

Postby Emmasa » Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:55 pm

The Indian Wells main draw is out and it's pure dinamite, as many expected. Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, Del Potro, Kyrgios and Zverev in the same quarter? You got to be kidding me. That menas we'll have nice matches to follow since R3 and that's a big news in male pro tennis. We are used to see the Tour dominated by this or that player, but right now all top players seem very close one to another in terms of form. And the ranking doesn't seem to reflect the actual form of many players, which is unusual.

Indian Wells Recent History

Djokovic is the defending champion in Indian Wells and he captured the last 3 editions of this tournament. Nobody ever managed to win it 4 consecutive times. In terms of total titles, Djokovic won it 5 times, Federer 4, Nadal 3 times. Murray never won this event and lost in R32 to Delbonis lat season. Since 2004, the winner has always been a Fab Four, except in 2010 (Ljubicic).

In 2016, Djokovic defeated Raonic in the final (6-2, 6-0), but Milos is out for injury this time. Semifinalists in last year edition were Nadal (lost to Djokovic) and Goffin (lost to Raonic).

The Draw

First Quarter
Andy Murray has been pretty lucky if we look at the draw comparing to the other Fab Four. His first rival in R64 will be the winner of Lu-Qualifier, and the first challenge could be a spanish player (Carreño o Bautista) in R16. The highest seed in his quarter is Tsonga (nº7), who will begin against the winner of Fognini-Kravchuk. Another strong contender in this quarter is David Goffin, Rotterdam finalist and 2016 semifinalist in California. Goffin will play the winner of Robredo-Khachanov.

QF: Murray-Goffin > Murray

Second Quarter
Wawrinka is the highest seed here (nº3) but Stanimal has never gone beyond quarter finals in this event. Wawrinka will play the winner of Haase-Lorenzi in his first match and could meet an in-form Kohlschreiber in the next round. Thiem (nº8) and Monfils (nº10) are also contenders for a place in the semifinal. Thiem will play Chardy or a qualifier and Monfils is waiting the winner of a clash between qualifiers.

QF: Kohlschreiber-Thiem > Thiem

Third Quarter
Things get very interesting in the bottom half of the draw. In this third quarter our top player is Dimitrov (nº12), although the highest seed are Nishikori (nº4) and Cilic (nº6). Dimitrov will start against Medvedev or Youzhny, while Nishikori (coming off 2 consecutive losses) will face D.Brown or D.Evans. Cilic will play Paire or T.Fritz. Another in-form player in this quarter is Sam Querrey (nº23) who will start his tournament against the winner of Young-Kozlov.

QF: Dimitrov-Nishikori > Dimitrov

Fourth Quarter
This is where the magic happened. Djokovic (nº2), Federer (nº9), Nadal (nº5), Del Potro (nº31), Kyrgios (nº15) and Zverev (nº18) very close one to another. Whoever is reaching the semifinal in this part of the draw, he will probably have to play some great tennis and beat at least a couple of title contenders.

QF: Nadal-Del Potro > Del Potro

Djokovic will play Elias or Edmund in the first match. If he wins, there's a big chance to face Del Potro in the very next match. 16 meetings already made this clash a classic. Djokovic is leading 12-4, and 1 of those losses happened in Indian Wells (2013).

Nadal will play Garcia Lopez or Pella in the first match and could meet Verdasco in the next match and eventually Federer in R16. Federer will start his quest against S.Robert or Sela. Kyrgios and Zverev will meet if they win their first match, and the winner will find Djokovic or Del Potro soon after.

Betting Analisis

If I had to take a winner for this event right now, I would take Murray, as he looks the most consistent in this very moment. Still he never won this event and never made to the final. It is fair to say there 7-8 players who can be considered title contenders, but I'm no used to take a winner at high prices at the beginning of any event.

Djokovic to win a 4th consecutive title? Very, very unlikely, because it's a big challenge and he's in his worst form since 2010. Nadal last hard court title came in january 2014, so we don't see him able to make the home run here. As for Federer, it's difficult to make a call but that loss in Dubai reminds us how fragile can a player be at age 35

A couple of potential R64 or R32 match ups looks interesting to me. I think Kohlschreiber could beat Wawrinka if they met and he will have some good price for sure. Cilic was lucky in the draw but I can't see him beating Sock nor Dimitrov. Pouille is in worse form than claimed, so I would lay him since the first match.

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby undertherobe » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:25 pm

That 4th quarter is huge. First time Djokovic, Nadal & Federer have been in the same quarter. The cream tends to rise to the top at Masters level with the three players previously mentioned and Andy Murray winning all bar 4 Masters events over the last six years.

Hopefully some of the Next Gen stars can light up the next few weeks

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby Emmasa » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:23 pm

I'm shocked by Murray loss as I didn't see Pospisil coming at all. The guy had a terrible 2016 and explained why in his post-match press conference. Anyway the ATP is getting more and more interesting with nobody really dominating right now, that's what we needed I think. I couldn't see the match so I have no idea what happened

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby undertherobe » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:38 pm

Murray was as sluggish as he's always been out West. Some players just don't play well in certain conditions and for some reason, Indian Wells is Murray's nemesis.

In past years, no-one's really batter an eyelid that Murray has gone out of this tournament early but with the bottom quarter stacked, it leaves the top half of the draw wide open.

With the top 4 being so dominant at this level for so long, maybe now we'll see a new name on the trophy.

Thiem is the one that stands out for me in the top half. His record on hard courts isn't that special, preferring clay, but could he be the one to take advantage of Murray's exit?

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby Emmasa » Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:39 pm

I think he could, Thiem has everything to go all the way and Indian Wells is the slowest hard court among hard court Master 1000, so it fits his game.

Some players don't play well in certain conditions for some reasons, it's true. Murray himself said he doesn't know why he can't play well in Indian Wells. But world nº1 is expected to win at least 2-3 matches in any given tournament, and this is the 2nd time it happens to Murray as world nº1. Losing to a complete outsider. Zverev in Australia, and now Pospisil, nº124. Zverev is 1-5 since he beat Murray, so we can't say he won because he made the next step and he's a tough player to beat. And I wouldn't bet a penny on Pospisil to win more than 1 more match here.

Anyway all these upsets have made ATP big events more interesting. If I had to pick a winner right now, I 'd had no clue

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby jbsouz » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:29 pm

1 PICK FOR TODAY:

INDIAN WELLS: KONTA over GARCIA @ 1.26 pinnacle
After a very good win and good form yesterday over Watson, I expect it to be another win for one of the best players of 2017 so far.

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby rustie » Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:13 pm

My outright tips after backing Verdasco E/W 66/1 last week...

Dimitrov @15

- He is 16-2 on tour this year with a couple of titles to his name. Losses coming in a five set loss to Nadal at AO and defeat to Goffin when fatigued in Rotterdam.
- He is in a stacked bottom half but his toughest route is likely to be an out of form Cilic in R4 followed by Nishikori who he's already beaten this year in the QF.
- Picking who's going to come through the bottom quarter is almost impossible for the SF but Dimitrov will probably be the fresher of whoever does make it through and he is in the sort of form to beat them anyway.
- The top half is pretty weak. He's won his last four matches against Wawrinka whilst he's already beaten Thiem this year so I'd expect him to win the final.

Wawrinka E/W @12

- Emmasa is quite right about the statistics about why Wawrinka shouldn't do well here but I think he might.
- When Wawrinka does make a run for the title, they are generally quite random.
- With how slow the ball moves through the air and the way the ball bounces up then I think Wawrinka could cause some damage if his timing is right.
- R3 plays Kohlschreiber and he leads that head to head 4-0
- R4 faces Berdych and he has won their last nine ATP matches.
- QF could be against any of Thiem, Monfils, Isner or M Zverev. I actually think he might struggle with the latter two despite ranking but I'd make him favourite in them all.
- SF should be straight forward as the top quarter is looking very weak.
- Don't expect him to win in a final but his record in them is generally pretty strong.

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby jbsouz » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:26 am

1 PICK FOR TODAY:

INDIAN WELLS: KERBER over VESNINA @ 1.37 pinnacle

Good match-up of styles for the favorite Kerber. She should be too consistent for attacking and sometimes erratic Vesnina.

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby rustie » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:32 pm

Del Potro @3.4 to beat Djokovic

Delpo seems to play pretty well against him post-injury and considering Djokovic's form and how poor I thought he was with Edmund in the first round that it's a possibility.

Del Potro's lost to Berdych here last year but that was his second tournament back from injury. He'd lost to Nadal three times and Federer the other in his four appearances here prior to that. He beat Djokovic here in 2013.

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Re: ATP & WTA Indian Wells and Miami

Postby undertherobe » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:56 pm

Fascinating game between Kyrgios & Djokovic right now. When the Aussie is full focused, he's a joy to watch but elements of frustration starting to creep into his game as we head towards the crucial 2nd set tiebreak.

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