Search found 2192 matches

by martinr
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Betting Chat
Topic: Losing runs
Replies: 6
Views: 136

Re: Losing runs

You'll be in good company mate :)
by martinr
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Betting Chat
Topic: Losing runs
Replies: 6
Views: 136

Re: Losing runs

For a quick estimate and a rough rule I use a multiple of 7x the implied win probability. For instance: If your selections are all priced at evens (50% probability), you multiply (decimal odds) 2.00 x 7 = possible losing run of 14. 20/1 would be 21.00 x 7 = (losing run of) 147. Using this guide your...
by martinr
Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: York Ebor Festival Pointers, Trends & Discussion
Replies: 41
Views: 1746

Re: York Ebor Festival Pointers, Trends & Discussion

I was just looking at SDS's 4 rides at York today and I feel he could land a winner or two. Can't forget his big priced Juddmonte winner 3 years ago. Both SDS and Mark Johnston have relatively poor records here so some of these runners should be at longer odds than might otherwise be available Holme...
by martinr
Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:32 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: York Ebor Festival Pointers, Trends & Discussion
Replies: 41
Views: 1746

Re: York Ebor Festival Pointers, Trends & Discussion

It's been years since I've seen a more interesting open age Group 1 race on the Flat than this year's Juddmonte International. I almost don't want to have a bet in the race and would just about rather savour it for the contest. This whole 4 day meeting actually feels like the best renewal in many a ...
by martinr
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: Europa League 3rd Rnd Q. 2nd Leg.
Replies: 1
Views: 66

Europa League 3rd Rnd Q. 2nd Leg.

Europa League 3rd Round Qualifying (2nd Leg). A couple of years ago I read a post regarding Home Teams in the 2nd Leg of major competitions that had won the 1st Leg away and might be opposable as short favourites in the 2nd Leg. The idea stuck in my mind, although I've never followed the results or ...
by martinr
Fri May 25, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Weekly Discussion Thread - Mon 21st May to Sun 27th May 2018
Replies: 25
Views: 3033

Re: Horse Racing Weekly Discussion Thread - Mon 21st May to Sun 27th May 2018

Goodwood 14:35 Parnassian 8.00 The inside stalls have an edge over the 7f trip at Goodwood and I think that makes Parnassian worth chancing in the 14:35. The 4yo improved for a hit out last season, finishing second and then following up with a win (off 86) in decent 3yo company on his second and th...
by martinr
Fri May 18, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Discussion Weekly Thread - Mon 14th - Sun 20th
Replies: 47
Views: 2482

Re: Horse Racing Discussion Weekly Thread - Mon 14th - Sun 20th

Banditry York 16:05 9/1. I was pleasantly surprised to see Banditry returned to the Flat following his spin over the sticks, and he went into the tracker following his return in the Spring Lodge Stakes Hcp over 9f at Newmarket 2 weeks ago. He ran on for 4th in that race behind the very promising Oa...
by martinr
Fri May 18, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Discussion Weekly Thread - Mon 14th - Sun 20th
Replies: 47
Views: 2482

Re: Horse Racing Discussion Weekly Thread - Mon 14th - Sun 20th

Burj. 4/1 Newbury 13:30 Saeed Bin Suroor sends just his second 2yo runner out today and I'm looking forward to seeing how Burj goes in the opener at Newbury. A Dansili colt out of a good quality mare (Dysphonia) that Godolphin raced in Australia. Time flies. It doesn't seem that long ago that I was...
by martinr
Thu May 17, 2018 4:17 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Discussion Weekly Thread - Mon 14th - Sun 20th
Replies: 47
Views: 2482

Re: Horse Racing Discussion Weekly Thread - Mon 14th - Sun 20th

York 14:20 Edward Lewis Tim Easterby has 3 runners in this race but his stats with fresh horses aren't great and all 3 are coming off a break of 200 days or more. His strike rate is <5% with horses fresh from a break of 120 days + (including sprinters over 5f) compared to >10% with his horses runni...
by martinr
Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread: Mon 26th Mar - Sun 1st Apr
Replies: 35
Views: 2619

Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread: Mon 26th Mar - Sun 1st Apr

I couldn't see the reasoning behind the early money for the Farrelly horse False Id in the 17:05 Wolves. Seeing that money and the trainer with 3 runners today (one now scratched), as well as a few other odd looking entries had me thinking a multi race gamble could be on the cards. I thought Jeremy'...
by martinr
Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread: Mon 26th Mar - Sun 1st Apr
Replies: 35
Views: 2619

Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread: Mon 26th Mar - Sun 1st Apr

Daniel Skelton has a pretty good record with horses on Handicap Hurdle debut, with a strike rate of ~ 15-16% since the beginning of 2015. He's been upping his game with such runners at Market Rasen though, with 5 winners from 8 (for 62%) since 2015 (it's actually 5 from 6 since the start of 2016 but...
by martinr
Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread: Mon 26th Mar - Sun 1st Apr
Replies: 35
Views: 2619

Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread: Mon 26th Mar - Sun 1st Apr

At Taunton today the trainer/jockey pairing of Christian Williams and Denis O'Regan looks interesting. They team up for 4 runners, while O'Regan is also booked for the very much in-form trainer Charlie Mann's only runner Zen Master (14:50). I think the chances are good that Denis O'Regan gets into t...