4:45 York Tips

Five wins over 5 furlongs this season for this front runner. Although going up in the weights, it has a great chance again, especially dropping to the bare 5 today (5.4 last time). Great each way chance with 5 places on offer.

Unexposed and improving 3yo filly. Winning back-to-back races in May/June and not beaten far in a 16-runner contest last time out - racing on the wrong side that day. She won a 15-runner handicap over this 5f C/D two starts back, the form boosted by the runner-up since. A good apprentice in the saddle puts her on her last winning mark. She's had a nice 6-week break, and she could be much better than her current 79 rating.

This horse's easy win at Dundalk just 2 starts ago is the piece of form which makes me think she has a serious chance here. She basically carried the same weight and clocked the same time as the winner of that race in the previous year, and that horse went on to win off 96 (Little Queenie). Eclairage races off just 88, and the 2nd on turf last time out was also full of promise. The jockey upgrade also suggests the trainer thinks he has the horse on a winnable mark here.

Jumbeau was a good 3rd in this race last year from a mark of 86 and won LTO for the first time since, cashing in from a reduced mark of 83 under a 7lbs claimer. She's 4lbs higher here but just 1lb higher than last year, and with her stable in flying form (3 winners from last 9), she could go closer this year. Headgear was left off last time to good effect and is left off again here. She's run well on both starts at York, and with conditions to suit and a good draw in stall 3 (front runner in stall 1), I think she's overpriced.