3:55 Hereford Tips

GRAECIA travelled well in his latest contest but gave the winner first run and could never quite get on terms at the sharp Kempton track. This lesser graded track should suit better.

Grandpa Ger should go very close to winning this. Went very close to winning on his UK debut, and this handicap mark is very helpful. I would be shocked if this is out of the frame. A lot of these could go close if they have a good day, but there are plenty where you know what their level is. So the selection could have more to come now going into handicaps.

This one can confidently be filed in the e/w bet to nothing box since he looks to be exactly that for his in-form trainer and jockey. The horse is also fit after a close-up 4th on the flat last time out where he is rated 71. The fact that he races over hurdles here off just 97 would strongly suggest he could be on a competitive mark here. There was nothing wrong with his hurdling when chasing home the hot favorite in the race prior to that flat run, and he was nearly 10 lengths clear of the third. So I'm expecting him to go very close here.

Cawthorne Banker won off a 102 last year, but this year has taken a while to get back in gear. He got back on the top step in August and then won again last month off an 86. I think there is a good chance that he could improve again off an 89 today.

Renoir, a 6-year-old, won over CD in March off the same mark as today. This represents a drop in class from her previous two runs after returning from a 4-month break. Cheekpieces are on for the first time, and with a very good rider's 5lb claim, the 6-year-old could go from the front. She has run well enough here on soft to not be too concerned if some rain comes.

This looks very open, and a chance is taken with the unexposed Following Chapter, who at 20/1 looks great value. The yard is in form and won the corresponding race last year. He ran well for a long way on his last run (the winner was over 3 stone higher than the selection's opening mark here).

A speculative chance is taken on another evening market mover, Lady Wilhelmina, who is now 14/1 from an opening show of 50/1. She has joined fledgling trainer Nick Schofield, whose stats are one place from 9 runs (a 40/1 2nd). Undoubtedly, she has to improve a great deal but could be worth an each-way bet. Takes a 6lb drop in official ratings.

Galactic Glow is yet to win over hurdles but has notched up 5 flat wins and plenty of places, including 2 over hurdles. 5 lbs out of the weights but could break an egg now.