Houston Open Tips

Min Woo Lee likes it here and can place. He won it last year and would like to repeat it, no doubt.

I believe Gotterup has a solid chance to find a way to another victory this weekend, considering he is a bomber and this qualifies for the Memorial Park length. Despite other bombers in the competition, he ranks third in driving distance and can handle the Texas windy conditions for at least a top-6.

Brooks Koepka looks to be coming back in form. He made the cut in his last three events. In what looks like a very moderate field, he could shine.

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Penge was a fine 4th last week and this course may be a better fit for him. He is one of the best for driving distance, and his long approach shots have been up there with the best. I think he goes really well this weekend.

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Fowler has been playing better recently and will be looking to find his best form here. He needs to find a strong performance before the Masters just to qualify.

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Shane Lowry’s game profile fits the Houston Open because he consistently ranks among the strongest players in Strokes Gained: Approach, often gaining more than one stroke per round during peak stretches. His major-championship record shows he performs well on demanding layouts with firm greens. When his driving accuracy stays above 60%, his scoring average drops significantly, giving him a statistically credible chance to contend for the win.

Won this back in 2022 at sixteen under par, four shots clear of his nearest opponent. A very unlucky 2nd on the reboot when missing out by just one shot. 32nd last year, but still finished eight under with his worst round being par. With his consistency on the course, he can do damage again if back on form.

Jordan Smith’s ball-striking profile is one of the most reliable on the DP World Tour, with strong strokes gained off the tee and approach numbers. His greens-in-regulation rate often exceeds 70%, giving him more birdie chances than the field average. When he gains positive strokes putting, his scoring average improves dramatically, making a Houston Open win statistically plausible.

Ryan Fox has made the cut in all six of his tournaments this year to date. His best position so far is seventh, but he seems quite capable of more.

Consistent player in this tournament with a 9th and an 11th place finish here, sandwiching a tournament win back in 2024 by one shot at twelve under par. Same score last year, but can definitely build on that.

Played so well in the first round last week, so he will be looking to find that form here. It depends if he can bounce back after a poor last round, which saw him fall out of title contention.

Gary played well last week, so his price has gone down a lot. As a former major winner, he will be looking to return to form after a very tough few years.

Patrick Rodgers’ best performances occur on courses that reward aggressive driving and strong par-5 scoring. His historical data show he gains a significant portion of strokes on longer holes, and his birdie-or-better percentage increases when fairways are wide enough to support his driving distance. In events where he gains strokes putting, he frequently contends, giving him a measurable chance to win.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s elite short-game metrics make him a strong candidate for victory on a course where scrambling and putting inside ten feet are decisive. His strokes-gained putting numbers frequently place him among the top performers on the PGA Tour. When he gains even half a stroke per round on approach, his top-five probability increases sharply, creating a realistic winning pathway.

Came to play in this tournament back in 2024 and, surprisingly, was just a shot off the lead to finish tied for 2nd place on eleven under. Came back last year to take 5th with a performance that was four shots better. Great each-way price if building on that here.

I'm persisting with Blanchett this weekend, with form that defies his odds. At the Puerto Rico Open he produced three impressive rounds of 64, 67, and 67, but a poor 74 cost him the win by one stroke. He again impressed last week when he was joint leader at one point, but a poor weekend dropped him to 18th. The talent is clearly there, and sooner or later he will win at a huge price.

Is a multiple Tour event winner in Europe and will look to back up his win here last year with a win stateside.

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Played very well last week, and bar one putt left short or a long couple of putts from Fitzpatrick, he would have won or at least got into a playoff.

It's a tough ask to feature at 500-1, but this course should be right up Nyholm's street. The course is ideal for people who can hit it far off the tee but also accurately. Nyholm hits it far and is accurate enough to keep it out of the trees. He was 16th at the recent Puerto Rico Open and 13th at the Cognizant Classic. If his putting goes well, he can perform a lot better than expected.

Played well last week and is a huge hitter. It will depend on his accuracy and putting here, and how well he can challenge to win this selection.

Is a former major winner and if played well can win this, let alone place as high as GB/Ireland. But we will see how it plays out.

Has won on the European Tour before and has the ability to win again or at least play well to challenge this selection here.

Is a quality player who is in form this year but depends on having had time off recently. If he can keep the momentum, he has a chance.

Fowler has been playing good golf this year and needs a good run to qualify for the Masters, so he should be determined and focused. His ceiling is high.

Played well last week, so is worth an outside selection here. Even if he may lack a gear or two to win, he just needs to be top 5 in the USA.

Has been through very tough years and will be looking to keep the momentum of the two tournaments before last week.

Played so well last week at such huge odds. He is maybe worth a selection here. Even if he doesn't win, he could be the top American.

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