Surging Lakers Face Stiff Test At The FedEx Forum: Odds And Preview Of The NBA's Doubleheader On Feb. 28th

Mike Calabrese breaks down his best NBA picks for Tuesday night's doubleheader on TNT. 

All wagers can be placed with licensed Sportsbooks in the US.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies-8.5 (231)

7:30p ET on TNT

The Lakers are in the playoff stretch run, likely needing a 13-8 or better finish in their final 21 games to comfortable make the postseason. They’ve remade their roster, adding perimeter weapons and depth to an aging team that desperately needed both. As a result, they’ve won four of five and just orchestrated the largest comeback in franchise history in the past 20 years. Their 27-point comeback against the Mavericks, on the road, is signaling to the Western Conference that the once lifeless-Lakers are now a force to be reckoned with down the stretch. 

And now comes a trip to Memphis and the FedEx Forum, a venue as intimidating as any in the NBA or professional sports for that matter. The Grizzlies are 25-5 SU and 18-11-1 ATS when playing at home this season. As a team, the Griz are far and away the most efficient defense in the league when playing at home, grading out at 1.025 (MKE second at 1.045). That will come in handy against a Lakers team that thrives on easy buckets. The Lake Show are top five in both points in the paint and transition buckets. 

Defensively, LA has come a long way from the beginning of the season when they were getting shredded. During their ghastly 2-10 start, the Lakers surrendered 117 points per game. In their last four wins they’ve allowed just 106 points per game, while entering into the top ten in eFG% defense. Their pace (2nd fastest) will always work against them in terms of scoring and transition defense (24th in both), but they’ve become respectable in basically every other metric across the board. It is worth noting that the Lakers have struggled on one day’s rest this season against the spread. Los Angeles is 15-22-1 on one day’s rest against the closing number, the third-worst winning percentage in the league. 

Betting Angle:

This game screams situational play on the LAL side. Memphis just crushed Denver, giving credence to the idea that they may be the best in the West. Facing a fringe playoff team, even with LBJ at the helm, is a bit of a letdown. Whereas the Lakers are surging and could use an upset like this to instill confidence in the final month-plus of the regular season. I’ll take the Lakers and the points. 

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers-6.5 (234)

10:00p ET on TNT

Another team on the playoff bubble is the Minnesota Timberwolves. Unlike the Lakers, Minny is trending in the wrong direction. Losers of four of five straight up and against the spread, they need Karl Anthony-Towns back in the worst way. It’s reported that he’s targeting a return date of mid-March so he can play an integral role in their final “10 to 15 games.” Anthony Edwards has done his best to carry the team, pumping in 26 points per game across their last six. Unfortunately, given the KAT-sized hole on their roster, they’ll need even more from the renowned trash talker. The T’Wolves are 7-2 SU in their last nine games in which Edwards has scored 30+ points.

If this line feels a bit tight for two teams in different weight classes in the Western Conference the simple explanation is that the Clippers are coming off back-to-back overtime defeats and won’t have fresh legs. For some teams with balanced offensive scoring and deep benches, that’s not too difficult to overcome. For the Clippers, who rely so heavily on Mr. Load Management (Kawhi Leonard) this could be an issue. Leonard has scored 77 points in the past two games, and could see reduced minutes in this game after logging 85 in the past two games. 

Given the wear and tear on the Clippers and the lack of KAT for Minnesota, this total feels a bit high. Clipper unders are the fourth-most profitable bet you can make in the NBA this season, and Minnesota unders have cashed in three straight games. I would play this one down to 231.5 and given the market’s response to the open that could be where this total is headed before tipoff. 

Betting Angle:

This could be a buy-low spot for Minnesota but the line is already accounting for that bounce-back factor. Leonard’s legs also concern me, which is why I’m on the under in this spot in lieu of a side.