Surging Avalanche Now +550 To Hoist The Cup

Noah Strang breaks down his best NHL plays for Wednesday night's nationally televised doubleheader, starting with the Islanders and Capitals and wrapping up with the Wild and Avalanche. He also breaks down the futures market with the regular season winding down.

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With the playoffs fast approaching and the standings shifting each and every day, there has once again been slight movement in the odds for some of the league's top contenders to win it all. 

No surprise here. The Boston Bruins are essentially locked into the best Stanley Cup odds as we head towards the playoffs. From +300 last week, they have now dipped below that threshold and find themselves at +290 to win it all.

As has been the case for some time now, the Colorado Avalanche are comfortably sitting with the second best Cup odds. The Avs dropped from +600 last week to +550 now, thanks in large part to their outstanding play as of late as they sport a 9-1 record over their past 10 games. 

Carolina stays pat in the third spot having been steady at +800 for the past three weeks now. 

The Maple Leafs however, saw their odds experience a little jump from +850 to +900. They’ve been playing solid hockey so the shift could just be a slight market correction. 

The Golden Knights are now in sole possession of the fifth best odds to win it all at +1000. They have won four games in a row and are 8-2 in their last 10 which is likely a driving factor in their move from +1100 last week. 

The Devils stuck at +1100 while the third team who had been at that mark last week, the Rangers, jumped to +1200. This change can also be attributed to a simple market correction as the Rangers have been playing outstanding hockey as of late going 8-1-1 in their last 10. 

Stanley Cup Champion

In what was a fairly quiet week across the league, it was off-ice storylines that once again dominated the media. 

The NHL announced last week that Fanatics would be taking over from Adidas as the league's new jersey provider beginning in the 2024-2025 season. The reported ten year deal had most hockey fans furious as many have long complained (rightfully so) about the quality of Fanatics merchandise.

On Monday night Gary Bettman was in attendance as the Ottawa Senators played host to the Florida Panthers. He was interviewed and reiterated that he and the NHL believe in the market and fans in the Nation’s capital. Bettman had previously stated that there are “around six” serious bidders for the team in which it has been reported will likely sell for a near billion dollar price tag. A new owner could mean a new home for the struggling Senators franchise. 

In some interesting news, ESPN announced on Friday that production had wrapped on a 30 for 30 documentary about the 2011 Vancouver riots that took place following their game seven Stanley Cup loss to the Bruins. Titled “I’m Just Here for the Riot”, it is said to feature footage from hundreds of cell phone cameras that captured the scenes that unfolded that day. 

Following both Marc and Eric Staal’s refusal to wear Florida’s pride jerseys as “it goes against [their] Christian beliefs”, Gary Bettman finally spoke out and acknowledged that the NHL was going to have to find some solutions for these issues to ensure more successful Pride Nights next season. 

In on-ice news, 23-year-old Buffalo Sabres rookie Lukas Rousek made his NHL debut on Monday and managed a goal and an assist in a gutting shootout loss to the Montreal Canadiens. As well, it should come as no surprise to hear that on Saturday the Bruins became the first team to clinch their division. In more Bruins news, the following day David Pastrnak joined Connor McDavid as the only players with 50 goals so far this season scoring numbers 50 and 51 in a win against the Hurricanes.

New York Islanders-120 @ Washington Capitals (5.5)

This Wednesday will feature the New York Islanders visiting D.C. to take on the Washington Capitals. 

The two teams are in very different positions as the Islanders are sitting in the first wild card spot in the East while the Capitals have fallen well out of playoff contention and are now heading towards a potential top-10 pick. 

Although Washington won both of the teams’ previous two meetings this season, I like the Islanders on the moneyline in this one. They are in the midst of a tight wild card race in which every game moving forward will have playoff intensity. The Capitals on the other hand, traded for some young assets at the deadline and are seemingly tanking to add to their prospect pool. Whenever I see a matchup involving two teams with those varying philosophies, I always like to take the hungrier team, in this case the Islanders. Their records over their past 10 games reflects each team's current mentality with the Islanders a solid 6-3-1 and the Capitals just 3-5-2. 

While the Islanders' moneyline won’t offer the best value on the board, I'd also advocate for the under. The Islanders are an elite defensive team allowing only 2.7 goals per game which is good for fifth in the league. The Capitals are also solid defensively allowing just 3.08 goals per game which puts them at 13th. In addition, neither team has a particularly potent offense with the Islanders at 22nd in the league and the Capitals only a tick better at 18th. With the total likely to settle in at 5.5, I like these two teams to come in below that mark and cash in the under.

Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche-160 (5.5)

In the West we have a pivotal intra division matchup between the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche. The two teams are battling for the top spot in the Central division with the Wild just one point ahead yet having played one more game. 

Both teams are playing at an extremely high level coming into this game as the Wild are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and the Avalanche are 9-1-0.

This is bound to be a very tight game between two teams that are currently fighting for first in their division. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, games with playoff intensity lead to board play and heavier checking which produces what? Unders!

Couple that general philosophy with the numbers and the under seems like a virtual lock. The Wild are number three in the NHL in goals allowed at just 2.64 per game while the Avalanche are no slouches either sitting at seventh in the league allowing 2.74 goals per game. Neither team has an out of this world offense either with the Wild at 23rd in the league in goals per game and the Avalanche at 15th. Whether the line comes in at 5.5 or 6, I’m confident in the under.

If I had to lean either way here in terms of the moneyline, I’d go with the Avalanche. The main reason being that they are the defending cup champions who have proved they can get it done on the biggest stage. In a pivotal game like this one in which the winner takes possession of first place in the division, I trust them to come through. Along with this, the Avalanche won the previous two meetings against the Wild this year and are an impressive 16-5-1 against teams within their division on the season.