Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania
(7) Michigan State-2.5 vs. (3) Kansas State (137.5)
6:30p on TBS
The Spartans entered the NCAA Tournament with little momentum and no appreciable advantages in their opening round game with USC. But they did bring one of March Madness' greatest coaches. Tom Izzo is a staggering 54-23 in the NCAA Tournament, complete with eight Final Fours and a national championship in 2000. After a fourth-place finish in the Big Ten he's coaxed back-to-back shutdown defensive performances from his team, holding USC to 62 points and Marquette to just 60. That was ten points below USC's season average and 19 below Marquette's. What he'll need on Thursday night is another star turn from Tyson Walker. The New York native is returning home to play at Madison Square Garden and is coming off of a 23-point, zero turnover performance against Marquette. If Walker shines, the Spartans will be a very tough out. Sportsbooks tend to agree, opening this game with the seven seed as the favorite over the three seed.
The market remains too low on K-State, a team that has found its groove offensively. When you pair Nowell's playmaking ability with their improving defense it's easy to talk yourself into a KSU ML bet.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
On the other side of his matchup is a K-State team that is beyond battle-tested. The Cats finished third in the nation's best conference (Big XII) and have a pair of 17-ppg scorers to rely upon. Markquis Nowell cooked Kentucky in the Round of 32, giving Coach Cal 27 points and nine assists. And his frontcourt teammate, Keyontae Johnson, is capable of stepping up in big moments. He was excellent against both Texas and Kansas in the regular season, and he could be the difference maker at MSG on Thursday night.
(8) Arkansas vs. (4) UConn-3.5 (139.5)
7:15p on CBS
The Razorbacks knocked off Kansas in the second round, continuing an incredible streak in college basketball. The defending national champion hasn't made it out of the first weekend since 2016. Davonte Davis now has 41 points in this tournament after averaging just ten points per game during the regular season. Nick Smith Jr., who was expected to carry the Hogs, has disappeared this March, scoring just six points in two games. Luckily for U-of-A, Eric Musselman has found a way to make the second weekend third straight season and has his Hogs playing with high-energy. They'll need that in spades against a UConn team that is ferocious on the glass and stout on the defensive end.
UConn's physicality will remind Arkansas of Tennessee, a team they recently lost to by 18 points. This matchup greatly favors UConn, which is why I'm laying the points.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
The Huskies are an advanced stats darling. Evan Miya, ShotQuality, and KenPom have them rated as the fourth best team in the country. They have the potential to be lethal offensively if their shots are falling and they're the best offensive rebounding team in the field when they're not. And much like K-State in the earlier game, UConn is used to elite competition thanks to their conference slate. After pounding St. Mary's in the Round of 32, it'll be interesting to see how they defend an Arkansas team that wants to get out and run. If they can force the Razorbacks to beat them in the halfcourt, they'll likely win this game going away because the Hogs are simply not a good shooting team (137th in Shooting Efficiency). They need open looks generated by transition opportunities and UConn has turned the ball more than nine times just once in their last four games.
(9) Florida Atlantic vs. (4) Tennessee-5.5 (130.5)
9:00p on TBS
Tennessee snuck past Louisiana in the opening round and then pulverized Duke as an underdog in the Round of 32. It's worth noting that Tennessee has repeatedly surprised opponents as an underdog and failed to consistently cover as a favorite. In their last ten games as a favorite of four points or more, UT is just 4-6 ATS. What they can rely on in this game is their defense, which is so physical around the rim that teams leave their games looking like they're exiting a boxing ring. Tennessee is the nation's top three-point defense (26.4%), third in shooting efficiency allowed and fifth in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. They make life hell on their opponents and use 11.3 offensive rebounds per game to make up for their spotty shooting.
The Owls really are the complete package and could flirt with an outright upset if they can keep Tennessee off the offensive glass. I think this will be a low-scoring seesaw battle so I'm happy to take the points.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Most plucky mid-majors come to the end of the road in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but FAU is hardly a pushover. The Owls are top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom and they're fourth in Evan Miya's "Kill Shot" metric, which means they reel off 10-0 runs more than any team remaining in the field. As a strong defensive rebounding team they should keep the Vols off the offensive glass and make them earn it from distance. If that scenario plays out for the majority of the game, covering 5.5-points will be difficult for a Tennessee team that is 5-4 SU in their last nine games.
(3) Gonzaga vs. (2) UCLA-2.5 (145.5)
9:45p on CBS
This is quickly becoming one of the most interesting West Coast rivalries in college basketball. These two met for a thrilling Final Four game in 2021 and have the legendary Adam Morrison-meltdown game from 2006 in their history as well. Now these two national title contenders are locking horns with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. Gonzaga enters with all kinds of momentum. The Zags have won 11 straight, and only won came by less than seven points. Their offense is now considered to be the gold standard of college basketball this season, earning top marks from KenPom, TeamRankings, Evan Miya, and Bart Torvik. This tournament hasn't been kind to top offenses, however, with five of the top seven watching the games at home. Could it be that the new basketballs are having a major impact? Many teams have complained about the Wilson basketball, but Gonzaga has been able to score 83 ppg thus far in March Madness games.
UCLA will look to slow things down, but without healthy perimeter defenders to do it for 40 minutes, I fear that Gonzaga will blow this game wide open. I'll play over 145.5 and bank on an up-and-down game that is more reminiscent of their last meeting in the Final Four.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
UCLA is a great defensive team who kills opponents from the mid-range, a lost art in the modern game. They do enter this regional semifinal wounded. Jaylen Clark, the DPOY in the Pac-12, is out for the season and David Singleton will be playing through an ankle injury. If he isn't fully healthy, the "run-n-gun" Bulldogs have a chance to dominate in transition. The Gonzaga system is utilized by Arizona's Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats went 2-1 against UCLA this season. But it's worth noting that despite their injury woes, perceived limitations on offense and a coach with multiple early exits from March Madness, UCLA has won 14 of 15 and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is red hot shooting the basketball. If he continues to dominate on the low block and finds his shooting stroke from the mid-range, UCLA could absolutely pull out another low-scoring win against an uptempo opponent.
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