March Madness 2023: Picking The 12-5 Upset

The famed 12-5 upset is a tried-and-true addition to any bracket. Since 1985, exactly one-third of those matchups have ended in an upset win for the 12-seed. To help you identify which 12-seeds that have the most potential this year, we're breaking down all four games in the Round of 64. Additionally, we have betting systems, general bracket advice, and national championship odds that we'll be updating week-to-week throughout the tournament.

South Region - (12) Charleston vs. (5) San Diego St-5.5 (-225)

A contrast of styles will play out in Orlando between the Cougars and Aztecs. Charleston plays fast (29th in tempo) and bombs away from long-range. No team takes more threes per game than CoC (29.9). San Diego State plays at a decidedly more methodical pace and struggles from the field (206th eFG%). The way that the Aztecs win is through their defense. According to KenPom, they are the 10th-rated defense in the nation and they pair that with a half-court style of play. Matt Bradley has the potential to carry the entire offense but he'll need to be more efficient. His shooting percentage from the field and deep has fallen off year-over-year and he's connected on just 40% of his attempts in the past eight games. If Bradley falters, Charleston could sprint past the Aztecs provided they crack the SDSU perimeter defense. Opponents have only sunk 29.2% (7th) of their three-point attempts against the Mountain West power.

East Region - (12) Oral Roberts vs. (5) Duke-6.5 (-275)

Another 12-5 matchup, another contrast of style. Duke plays at its slowest pace in decades. The Blue Devils play at the 288th-fastest pace in the nation. It explains why 60.6% of under tickets have cashed in Duke games this year. Oral Roberts, on the other hands, loves to push the tempo and score, score, score. The Golden Eagles have averaged 92 points per game in their last ten games and rely on their Energizer Bunny, Max Abmas, to lead their transition offense. Abmas is one of the most efficient high-volume scorers in the country (22.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4 apg on 37.7% 3PT and 91.8% FT) and he has a towering big to pair with for a potential Cinderella run. Connor Vanover, an Arkansas transfer, does that dirty work on the glass and patrols the lane, registering 3.3 blocks per game (2nd nationally). Duke has been on a tear and their inside-out combination of Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach is national championship caliber. Industry analysts believe this could be the Blue Devils toughest test until a potential meeting in the Sweet 16 with Purdue or Memphis. 

Midwest Region - (12) Drake vs. (5) Miami FL-2.5 (-145)

The Miami Hurricanes split the ACC regular season title with Virginia, but since then they've been dealt some bad news. Norchad Omier is the Canes' version of Dennis Rodman. The all-effort big is a defensive stopper and the best rebounder that Jim Larranaga has ever coached. Unfortunately for UM, he's doubtful to play in this game due to an ankle injury. Can Drake take advantage with the Canes' best player sidelined? Absolutely. The Bulldogs are the best rebounding mid-major in the field and they can really put the clamps on teams defensively. They also have an inside-out duo of Roman Penn (12.6 ppg, 5.4 apg) and Tucker DeVries (19 ppg, 5.6 rpg) capable and grinding out winning basketball in the halfcourt. The Canes finished 203rd in half-court points per possession defense this year, so Drake can take advantage. This game opened with Miami as a four-point favorite but sharps have bet it down to 2.5-points. Once Omier is officially ruled out this game could close right around a pick 'em.  

West Region - (12) VCU vs. (5) St. Mary's (CA)-4.5 (-175)

The Selection Committee didn't do St. Mary's any favors. Not only were they under-seeded as a five-seed, but they sent them across the country to play an early afternoon game in Albany, NY. Why is that important? Because it will be an 11am body clock game for the Gaels. Additionally, the four teams that have to travel the furthest for their first round game since 2014 have only covered 39% of their games. On the floor, the Gaels' Aidan Mahaney had a fantastic freshman season but he's running out of gas down the stretch. As the Gaels' go-to scorer, he's failed to top ten points in four of his last seven games. And now both Mahaney and the Gaels are running head first into a tremendously disruptive VCU defense. The Rams turn teams over 16.5 time per game (10th) and can turn to Ace Baldwin to carry the offense. The Rams point guard broke out of a recent shooting slump and averages nearly six assists per game. My only concern in a close game is VCU's suspect foul shooting. The Rams are sub-70% from the stripe (266th).