Championship Week: Kansas, Purdue, and UConn favored to win Big XII, Big Ten and Big East Tournament Titles

Championship Week is in full swing, which means that some programs will need to win five games in five days to punch their tickets to the Big Dance. The "win or go home" drama amplifies the intensity of opening round games in major conferences, but there's a slew of bubble teams that may only need one or two more wins to ensure they hear their names called on Selection Sunday. All three of the tournaments listed below get things started with their first round on Wednesday. The Big East will be playing in their traditional venue, Madison Square Garden. The Big Ten, which rotates between neutral site venues, will be playing at the United Center in Chicago. And the Big XII will play out its tournament at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. 

Big XII Conference Tournament Odds

The Big XII was far and away the best conference in college basketball this season. As a result, all ten teams are inside of KenPom's top-60. In fact, seven sit inside of the KenPom top-25 making this one of the most difficult tournaments to predict. Kansas may enter as the favorite, but the Jayhawks are not the intimidating world beaters they were last season. Their offense has sputtered at times this season, evidenced by the fact that they've scored 67 points or less in four of their last nine games. Jalen Wilson has been KU's do-it-all superstar, but even he can't carry the offensive load alone. The Jayhawks will need more consistent shooting from freshman star Gradey Dick and senior wing Kevin McCullar Jr. if they hope to win three games in three days. Texas just whipped KU by 16 at home, and pair a high-scoring offense with a disruptive defenses (16.2 TO, 16th). If UT draws TCU in the semifinals, a team they match up better with than Kansas State, they could waltz to the championship game. Baylor has the backcourt to win this tournament and the NCAA tournament, but they've also shot their way out of games as of late. The Bears dropped three of their five all by double digits. If you're looking for a pure value play, West Virginia is intriguing at +1500. The advanced metrics community loves WVU (KenPom 17th, Bart Torvik 18th, ShotQuality 21st) and the Mountaineers nearly upset Kansas (76-74) at Phog Allen last month. At 15:1 they're worth a roll of the dice. 

Big Ten Conference Tournament Odds

Purdue has spent the majority of the season within the AP top five, yet they're viewed as a vulnerable top seed in both in the Big Ten and upcoming NCAA tournaments. The reason for this is that they prefer to play at a slower pace and struggle to consistently knock down perimeter shots (32.7% 3PT, 249th). This makes it difficult for them to dig out of a hole. Luckily for the Boilermakers, teams like Indiana, Iowa, Maryland and Penn State would need to win at least one if not multiple games to face them. All four of those teams have the ability to catch fire offensively, and would be bad draws for the number one seed. One plodding defensive-minded team on the other side of the bracket that actually benefits from missing Purdue is Northwestern. At +900 odds, sportsbooks appear to be low on the Wildcats. The Cats kill teams in the halfcourt, allowing just 46.6% shooting inside the arc. Northwestern is 10th nationally in turnover margin (+4.3) and close games very well at the line. Penn State could also be worth a look at +2500 given their late season surge. The Nittany Lions have played their way onto the bubble winning five of their last six straight up. They swept Illinois (2nd Rd Opponent), upset Northwestern on the road (Quarterfinals Opponent), and handed Indiana a 19-point loss (Potential Semifinals Opponent). Their path sets up for a nice run in Chicago. 

Big East Conference Tournament Odds

With Jay Wright gone, the days of Villanova dominating this event are over. The Wildcats won five Big East tournaments between 2015 and 2022 and were upset before the finals just once in that span. This year the Cats enter as +1000 long shots to win four games in four days. UConn is the odds-on favorite thanks to their yeoman-like work on the glass. The Huskies are third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and their length allow them to disrupt shooters on the perimeter for 40 minutes. Only one team in the country (Hawai'i) gives up fewer threes per game than UConn (4.7). Marquette (8.8 3PM) and Creighton (8.9 3PM) will look to overcome that UConn perimeter defense and shoot their way to a Big East title. The Bluejays are the far more balanced team at +300, with a defense that approaches the top ten in a few advanced metrics. The Bluejays led Villanova in the title game last year with under three to play before wilting in the closing minutes. Xavier isn't worth a look at +550 given the recent injury to Zach Freemantle. His foot injury will sideline him for the rest of the season. One team to consider at a longer price is Providence. The Friars attack the rim and get to the line a ton, they're also the best offensive rebounding team outside of UConn in the Big East. They split with Creighton, Marquette and UConn this season, so they've proven their upside against the most difficult opponents they'll face in a run to the title.