TeddyT

The outright prices are heavily skewed towards the top four ranked players who are seeded through to the quarter-finals, but I think those four could be at a disadvantage. This is only the second year of the twelve-player format, but last year three of the seeded players lost their first match. Perhaps it is an advantage to play a best of nineteen 'qualifier' in the first round so those players' games are honed and used to the format. The top four seeds come into this format cold and could be at a disadvantage. With that in mind, I'm going to go for a previous winner of this event, Shaun Murphy. Murphy plays Barry Hawkins first-up, and Murphy seems to have the measure of Hawkins with a 14-7 h2h, and Murphy won easily the only time they have played in a longer match (17-9). Murphy will then face Judd Trump, who must be starting to worry if his efforts to still be fresh at the end of the season haven't worked as he has gone seven events without a win since Christmas. If that is playing on Trump's mind, Murphy may have a better chance than his odds imply.

Si Jiahui has been in a form slump for a while, but I'm thinking that this different format (all rounds best of 19) might spark him back to form. In the last two World Championships, he has won nine out of eleven multi-session matches. Jiahui has a tough draw, but the price of 50/1 still looks a bit of value in a twelve-man event.

Robertson has had the edge over Selby in recent years and has won nine of their ten most recent match-ups, including when winning 10-3 in this event in 2021. Selby took advantage of Si Jiahui in round one but he has been badly out of form so a much tougher examination can be expected from Robertson.

I'm going with my theory that the players who won through from the first round have an advantage over the players coming into the tournament now, as they are used to the table and conditions and already feel good about their game after getting a win on the board. These two players had a very close match in the Players Championship with Higgins just sneaking through 6-5, although Xiao was leading 5-2. I think he will be all out to avenge that defeat, and he has already seen off Wu Yize 10-8. I think this will be close again, but slight value with Xiao Guodong.

Ding was heavily flattered by his 10-3 win over Mark Williams in round one, considering that the Welshman is really having problems with his eyes, and he seemed to give up in the last seven frames, scoring only 35 points. The last two times these two have met over nineteen frames, Wilson has won both, 10-5 and 10-8. The World Champion is a much-improved player since then, so I expect a comfortable win for Wilson here.

Si Jiahui hasn't been in the best recent form and has a poor record against Selby, but I think the odds are too big for the outsider. Si has a great record in multi-session matches, winning nine of the last thirteen he has played. Not all of those matches were against the calibre of Selby, but it looks like Si enjoys the longer matches, and hopefully, this big event will bring about a change in form for him.